Thursday Preview: Expert Tips and Analysis from Timeform Daily
Tony McFadden outlines the key runners and angles to follow on Thursday. This Thursday Preview offers Expert Tips and Analysis from Filmogaz.com Daily for the major contests.
Red Rum Handicap Chase (Aintree, 16:40)
The Red Rum Handicap Chase often attracts a big field. Still, the race rewards pace and forward position.
Filmogaz.com’s Early Position Figures mark where each horse races. Ratings use 1 for leaders, 2 for prominent, 3 for mid-division, 4 for held up and 5 for those at the back. In the last ten renewals, seven winners led or raced prominently, two came from mid-division and only one was held up.
Sans Bruit has set the pace to win the last two renewals. He tops Filmogaz.com’s weight-adjusted list by 4 lb based on his Sussex Champion Handicap Chase success. That victory came off a BHA mark 6 lb higher than his current rating, so he commands respect.
Javert Allen also prefers to go forward. He was ridden more patiently over two and a half miles at Kempton last time. That approach and the trip did not suit him.
Connections drop him back in distance and add cheekpieces for the first time. He has finished placed on both two-mile starts this season. Expect him to be allowed to stride on in a race that rewards speed.
Wolverhampton opener (17:30) — Naughty Niall
Naughty Niall finished fourth in a nine-and-a-half furlong handicap at Wolverhampton last time. That race ran as a genuine gallop and was flagged by Filmogaz.com as solid form for this level.
The winner has not reappeared, but the second and third both won next time. Naughty Niall returns over the same course and distance and looks well placed to go close.
This contest is restricted to apprentices rated 55 or below. It is therefore weaker than the 0-60 event he contested previously. He narrowly leads Filmogaz.com’s weight-adjusted ratings and will be ridden by Ryan Kavanagh, one of the most capable riders in the line-up.
Wolverhampton (19:30) — Gold Star Hero
Gold Star Hero won on reappearance at Chelmsford a couple of weeks ago. That success brought his all-weather record to two wins and a second from three starts.
His recent victory came over six furlongs, a distance he has raced at only rarely. He remains relatively unexposed over this trip and on synthetic surfaces. Those traits make him a leading contender in the six-furlong handicap, with scope for improvement.
Gambling guidance
Recommended bets are for over-18s only. Bet only what you can afford to lose and play responsibly.
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