2026 NFL Mock Draft: Fernando Mendoza Goes No. 1, Combine Week Shakes Up Round 1 Projections

The 2026 NFL Mock Draft picture is coming into sharp focus this week as the NFL Scouting Combine wraps up in Indianapolis. With the draft set for April 23, analysts across the league are updating their projections daily. One thing is almost universally agreed upon — Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the clear-cut No. 1 pick, and Las Vegas is almost certainly his destination.

2026 NFL Mock Draft Pick No. 1: Fernando Mendoza to the Las Vegas Raiders

Barring something unforeseen, the Raiders picking Mendoza feels like a foregone conclusion. Mendoza is coming off an incredible 2025 campaign that included a Heisman Trophy, an undefeated season, and a national title. He is not the most athletic passer, but he is a tough, accurate thrower who excels from the pocket and should develop into a high-quality starter if Las Vegas can build a winner around him.

Mendoza is the No. 1 prospect on Mel Kiper Jr.'s board and far and away the best quarterback in the class. He is competitive and precise with his ball location. If the Raiders bring in a receiver or two during free agency and shore up the offensive line, this offense could take a step forward with Mendoza alongside running back Ashton Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers. Every major mock draft analyst agrees Las Vegas cannot pass on this opportunity.

Top 10 Picks in the 2026 NFL Mock Draft

The top of the 2026 NFL Mock Draft is loaded with defensive talent after Mendoza goes first overall. PFF projects Arizona at No. 3 will grab a blue-chip defender rather than a quarterback, with the Cardinals starting their rebuild on defense. At No. 4, the Tennessee Titans turn to the pass rush, with Texas Tech's David Bailey — who led the FBS with a 93.8 PFF pass-rush grade and 15 sacks in 2025 — projected as arguably this class's best pure pass rusher.

Ohio State safety Caleb Downs is generating significant buzz as a potential top-10 selection. Downs reads plays exceptionally well, possesses the speed and wrap-up technique to take down ball carriers, and had two interceptions in each of his three college seasons. This would be the highest draft slot for a safety since Eric Turner went No. 2 overall back in 1991. Multiple mock drafts have Downs landing anywhere between picks 5 and 12 depending on the analyst.

Quarterback Landscape in the 2026 NFL Mock Draft

There is only one clear first-round quarterback in this class — Mendoza — followed by a few other passers who could potentially join him on Day 1. Alabama's Ty Simpson is generating round-one discussion, having thrown 28 touchdown passes and only five interceptions in the 2025 season, though concerns remain about his 15 career starts and a dip in performance in the second half of the year.

Simpson is seen as a strong fit for the Los Angeles Rams, where he could learn for a year or two behind Matthew Stafford before eventually taking over as the franchise quarterback. Sean McVay's scheme and culture are considered an ideal developmental environment for the Alabama signal-caller. Beyond Mendoza and Simpson, no other quarterback is considered a lock for the first round in the current 2026 NFL Mock Draft consensus.

Wide Receiver Class Dominates 2026 NFL Mock Draft Round 1

The wide receiver position is among the deepest in this year's draft, with analysts projecting as many as six pass catchers going in the first 32 picks. Projected first-round receivers include Makai Lemon of USC to the Jets, Denzel Boston of Washington to the Steelers, KC Concepcion of Texas A&M to the 49ers, and Carnell Tate of Ohio State to the Cleveland Browns — with Tate considered the best deep-play threat in the class after averaging 17.16 yards per catch in 2025.

Indiana's Omar Cooper Jr. is also drawing first-round consideration after being a clutch performer for the national champion Hoosiers last season, while Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is drawing comparisons to a three-down weapon capable of transforming any offense, with some analysts calling him arguably the best overall player in the entire 2026 draft. The offensive skill position depth in this class is widely considered its greatest strength.

Combine Week Risers and Fallers in the 2026 NFL Mock Draft

Alabama's Kadyn Proctor is one of the most debated prospects heading into combine week. He is a massive left tackle at 6-foot-7 and 360 pounds, with quick and athletic movement for his size, but NFL team sources have expressed concerns about his weight management and whether he will maintain his ideal playing weight over the long haul in a professional setting.

Tennessee cornerback Jermod McCoy did not play at all in 2025 after tearing an ACL, but his 2024 tape was considered so impressive — 44 tackles, four interceptions, and seven passes broken up — that he remains a projected first-round pick if his medical checks at the combine come back clean. His health evaluation in Indianapolis this week is considered one of the most consequential medical checks of the entire 2026 draft process.

Key Team Needs Driving the 2026 NFL Mock Draft

Several teams are driving demand at specific positions in the 2026 NFL Mock Draft. The Cincinnati Bengals are among the most desperate for defensive back help after allowing the NFL's most yards per play in two of the past three seasons including 6.2 yards in 2025, making Caleb Downs or another elite safety a strong priority.

The New Orleans Saints enter the draft needing talent at nearly every position, making best-player-available the likely strategy. Washington may look to move out of its first-round slot entirely but could consider adding a dynamic playmaker for Jayden Daniels such as Jeremiyah Love if forced to stay put. The 2026 NFL Mock Draft consensus will continue shifting rapidly through March free agency, when team needs across the league crystallize ahead of the April 23 draft night in Green Bay.