Okc vs. Nuggets: odds, player props and model picks for Friday
The Denver Nuggets visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday in a matchup loaded with prop opportunities and model-driven edges. The model pick and player-prop angles below focus on where value appears in the spread, the total and individual markets—and why that matters for bettors today.
Cameron Johnson's shooting form against OKC's allowance of threes
Even within a single game, betting markets are abundant: traditional markets like the spread or the total sit alongside a large number of player-prop markets. Cameron Johnson, after a slow start to his Nuggets tenure, is starting to pick it up and the market may be slow to react. In Denver's last game Johnson was set to hit two-plus threes and delivered, making three of six from downtown.
Johnson has made a clear run since returning from injury: in seven games since that return he is shooting 38. 7% from three, and he has hit at least two treys in three of his previous four games. That matters because OKC permits the sixth-highest three-point attempt rate (43. 9%). Over the last 30 games, the Thunder are giving up the third-most made triples per night to power forwards (3. 0) and the 11th-most made threes per game to small forwards (3. 0), so however Johnson is deployed he projects into a friendly spot.
Okc listed at -114 to go over 120. 5; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's return shifts lines
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to make his return today, though there is a risk of some kind of minutes restriction. Despite that risk, the betting lines and prop pricing appear to assume SGA will handle close to his usual offensive load. The reigning MVP had assist totals of nine, 13 and eight in his last three games prior to going on the shelf, supporting a hold that he can run the offense effectively on return.
With OKC listed at -114 odds to go over 120. 5 points, the model’s favorite bet in this matchup is SGA to record at least six assists. The projection leans to that assist line both because of his recent distribution output and because his teammates present reliable targets.
Thunder cast and absences: Jalen Williams out, Wallace, Holmgren and Isaiah Joe available
Jalen Williams is still out, which affects usage maps and defensive assignments. That absence increases the roles of Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe; those three are specifically noted as offensive weapons who should give Gilgeous-Alexander plenty to pass to. The Thunder’s supporting cast production is a direct factor in why a six-assist line for SGA looks attainable on return.
From the Nuggets' side, Denver isn't very good on defense this season, ranking 20th in defensive rating, a situational detail that supports higher team totals for OKC and underpins the over-120. 5 market price.
Market approach, projections and a timing promotion for Feb. 27, 2026
The approach uses sportsbook NBA betting odds, player props and research projections to try to find value; lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report. For bettors looking at timing, there is a promotional token window tied to games that day: three 30% profit boost tokens can be used on wagers between 6 p. m. and 7: 30 p. m. ET for NBA games taking place on February 27th, 2026.
Notes and reminders: the abundance of in-game markets means there are frequent opportunities to pivot between the spread, the total and player props as line movement and injury updates arrive. Please note lines can shift prior to tipoff.
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