Okc okc: Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Best Bets and Player Props
okc faces the Denver Nuggets on Friday in a matchup crowded with traditional markets and player-prop options. This preview runs through the best bets and player props while highlighting key injury notes, recent form and market signals.
Game overview and betting markets
Even within a single game, betting markets are abundant. You can bet traditional markets like the spread or the total, but we've also got tons of player-prop markets to sift through. Let's dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds and NBA player props, utilizing FanDuel Research's NBA projections to try to find value. Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.
Cameron Johnson three-point case
After a slow start to his Nuggets tenure, Cameron Johnson is starting to pick it up, and the market may be a little slow to react. I wrote up Johnson to hit two-plus threes in Denver's last game, and he delivered, making three of six from downtown. Part of the reasoning for that call was Denver's matchup against a team that allows a lot of three-point looks; Johnson is in the same kind of matchup again.
OKC permits the sixth-highest three-point attempt rate (43. 9%). Over the last 30 games, the Thunder are giving up the third-most made triples per night to power forwards (3. 0) as well as the 11th-most made threes per game to small forwards (3. 0) — so however Johnson is deployed, he'll be in a friendly spot. In seven games since returning from injury, Johnson is shooting 38. 7% from three, and he's nailed at least two treys in three of his previous four games. I like him to keep rolling tonight.
Okc defensive and offensive context
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to make his return today, and while there's certainly a risk of some kind of minutes restriction, the books — given where SGA's prop lines are — seem to be expecting SGA to handle close to his usual offensive load. I'm into the reigning MVP to dish out at least six assists.
Prior to going on the shelf, SGA was distributing the rock at a high level, racking up assist outputs of nine, 13 and eight over his last three games. While Jalen Williams is still out, Gilgeous-Alexander is returning to a Thunder team that is playing well offensively, particularly the likes of Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe, so SGA has plenty of weapons to pass to. Plus, Denver isn't very good on D, ranking 20th in defensive rating for the season.
With okc listed at -114 odds to go over 120. 5 points, SGA to notch at least six assists is my favorite bet in this game.
Injury notes and minutes considerations
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to return today but there remains the possibility of some minutes restriction; the books' prop lines suggest an expectation of near-normal offensive usage. Jalen Williams remains out, and Cameron Johnson has recently returned from injury and is in his seventh game since that return.
Promotions and site notes
NBA Happy Hour! Get THREE 30% profit boost tokens to use on any wagers between 6 p. m. and 7: 30 p. m. ET for any NBA Games taking place on February 27th, 2026! Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.
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Lines and promotional details can shift throughout the day; please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.
For this Nuggets at Thunder meeting on Friday, the key betting angles are Cameron Johnson's three-point role against a permissive perimeter defense and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's return and playmaking volume — with SGA to notch at least six assists the top single play in this piece.
