By Election Results: It’s a three-horse race — First Past the Post isn’t fit for purpose in Gorton and Denton

The Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election, scheduled for Thursday 26 February, has turned into a three-way contest whose by election results will be scrutinised for what they mean for party leaders and the future of First Past The Post. Polls put the race in a three-way dead heat, making the outcome nearly impossible to call and raising wider questions about how voters’ preferences are translated into representation.

By Election Results: A three-way dead heat

Polling and betting assessments repeatedly place Labour, Reform UK and the Green Party in close contention in what was once a safe seat. The contest is now portrayed as the biggest electoral test yet for Keir Starmer ahead of what are expected to be disastrous results for Labour in the May local elections. The symbolic nature of the vote is heightened by the pressure on Labour from Reform and the Greens, and by the spotlight a Labour loss would throw on Starmer’s decision to block Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, from contesting the seat.

First Past The Post and the voters of Gorton and Denton

Critics argue First Past The Post (FPTP) is letting down the people of Gorton and Denton at a moment of intense multi-party competition. The UK general election of 2024 is described as the most disproportional ever, with Labour securing almost two-thirds of MPs from just over one-third of votes. Where three or more parties compete, candidates increasingly win with the support of fewer than a third of local voters, meaning the votes of more than two-thirds of electors can be effectively ignored. With Labour, the Green Party and Reform UK all fighting this by-election very strongly, it is highly plausible that the ballots of a majority of voters will be ignored in this way.

What each party stands to gain or lose

A Reform UK victory for candidate Matt Goodwin would be held up as evidence that Nigel Farage’s poll lead represents real voter intentions rather than symbolic dissatisfaction with government. Goodwin is described as a divisive, hyper-online figure with family roots in Manchester who spent most of his adult years in the south-east of England. He has made the campaign a referendum on Starmer’s leadership and rarely discusses Reform’s policies or local issues. Gorton and Denton is listed as 440th on the Reform target list, and the party’s recent history includes a win in Runcorn and Helsby almost a year ago by just six votes. Reform expected at least 1, 000 activists to get out the vote, particularly people who do not usually vote and who have been key to delivering other by-election victories.

A Green victory would signal a different rupture: it would mark the Greens as a serious progressive force rather than a protest option, and would demonstrate that Labour is not the automatic beneficiary of an anti-Reform alliance. Polls and betting markets repeatedly put the Greens ahead in the contest, and the campaign of Hannah Spencer is credited with enthusiastic organising that could capitalise on disillusioned progressive voters. The Green coalition is described as able to pull in former Labour voters seeking to deliver Starmer a kicking — many but not all from the area’s large Muslim community — as well as students and young professionals in Levenshulme. The Greens have repeatedly turned out large swathes of activists and have worked the seat from a base of zero.

For Labour, the stakes are existential: should Labour lose, there would be intense scrutiny of Starmer’s leadership and his earlier decision to block Andy Burnham from standing. If Labour were to finish third, questions would mount over Starmer’s ability to unite progressive voters against candidates like Goodwin. Labour attacks on the Greens have been sharp, targeting the party’s drug policy with claims it would be willing to sell legalised drugs to teenagers and attacking its defence stance by using the phrase "Putin's useful idiots".

Tactical voting, campaign dynamics and wider consequences

One major criticism of FPTP in multi-party contests is that debate becomes dominated by tactical voting discussions: which party has a genuine chance of winning and which party is best placed to stop another party. In Gorton and Denton, both Labour and the Green Party are urging voters that they are the only practical option for those wanting to "stop Reform. " This approach is said to shortchange voters, who deserve to hear policy debates and candidates’ plans for representation rather than being forced into strategic calculations. The dynamic seen here is expected to replicate in other constituencies at the next general election, where Conservatives and Reform UK may try to persuade voters they are the only choice to stop Labour or another rival.

Alternatives on display: Scottish STV example

As an alternative, Scottish local elections operate under the Single Transferable Vote (STV), a form of proportional representation where voters number candidates on the ballot. In Scottish local council by-elections, voters can place their genuine first choice at number one while knowing their vote can be transferred to their second choice if their first-choice candidate has no chance and no candidate has reached a majority; transfers continue until someone wins a majority. This system of preferential voting removes the prospect of unclear in the provided context

The Gorton and Denton by-election will therefore be watched not just for its immediate winner but for what the by election results reveal about voter behaviour, tactical campaigning and the resilience of First Past The Post in an era of three-way contests.