Nuggets Vs Warriors: Jokic Over 9.5 Assists Shifts Betting Edge for Feb. 22
The Denver Nuggets travel to the Bay to face the Golden State Warriors in what is their third meeting this season, and the nuggets vs warriors matchup has a clear betting angle: Zak Hanshew's top free pick for Sunday, February 22 is Nikola Jokic Over 9. 5 assists (-135). That projection matters because it pushes the expectation that Jokic will shoulder extra playmaking duties while Jamal Murray is banged up.
Hanshew’s prediction and the Jokic assist case
Hanshew's short take—"Jokic drops dimes"—is reflected in the best bet listed as Nikola Jokic Over 9. 5 assists (-135). Jokic leads the NBA with 10. 5 helpers per game this season, has dished 10-plus assists in 26 of 41 games overall, and averaged 9. 9 assists on the road. In his last five appearances at Golden State he averaged 11 assists and finished with 10 or more four times, making the Bay a particularly productive venue for his facilitation. With Jamal Murray banged up, the projection expects additional playmaking responsibilities for the Joker.
Nuggets Vs Warriors: timing, stakes and Denver’s road profile
This Western Conference showdown is set for Sunday, February 22, and marks the third meeting between the teams this season. The Nuggets' offense is the highest-scoring in the Association, and Denver recently set a franchise road record with 157 points in Friday's win over the Portland Trail Blazers. Denver has hit the Over in eight of its last 10 games, a trend that factors into picks for this trip to the Bay.
Warriors home dynamics, Porzingis debut and team totals
Kristaps Porzingis finished with 12 points across 17 minutes in his Warriors debut and is expected to see his minutes tick up on Sunday; the context notes he can get one more bucket and clear his scoring line in a high-scoring matchup with the Nuggets. Golden State has hit the Over in three straight games, and the Warriors have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home, a run quantified as +9. 20 Units / 39% ROI.
Betting records and matchup implications
The Nuggets sport the second-best against-the-spread (ATS) record on the road this season at 20-1 and are 12-9 ATS as the road favorite. The Golden State Warriors are 14-15 ATS at home and have covered in just one of five games as the home dog. Those situational records feed into the Jokic assists play and the broader Over lean; Denver's recent scoring outburst and Golden State's team totals trends both support a higher-scoring expectation for the game.
Notes on picks, further trends and disclosures
Hanshew presents these as his best free NBA picks for the matchup and highlights Jokic's facilitator role in San Francisco as the primary betting angle. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Warriors. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: the team that prepared the picks may receive compensation if readers sign up through links; readers are urged to carefully check their local laws before using any online sports betting services and to understand and observe those laws. The publisher disclaims liability associated with use of the information, and users agree as a condition of using the site to hold the owner harmless from claims arising from third-party services.
About the writer
Zak Hanshew has been covering fantasy sports and sports betting since 2018 and has written for other publications in the field. In his spare time he spends time with his wife and four kids, plays his guitar, watches Simpsons re-runs, and gets some shots up on the court.
