Michigan Named No. 1 Seed in March Madness 2026 Bracket Preview; Duke, Arizona and Iowa State Occupy Top Line
The NCAA selection committee released its three-weeks-out bracket preview, placing Michigan as the No. 1 overall seed and setting Duke, Arizona and Iowa State beside the Wolverines on the top line. The announcement matters now because it frames potential region matchups and clarifies how a midweek loss, an injury and the committee’s balance rules have already reshaped the projected field as Selection Sunday approaches.
March Madness 2026 top-line: Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Iowa State
In the bracket preview unveiled on Saturday — three weeks and a day before the official bracket is revealed on Selection Sunday — the four projected No. 1 seeds, in order, are Michigan, Duke, Arizona and Iowa State. The preview also named the top 16 seeds overall and placed UConn as the top No. 2 seed, followed by Houston, Illinois and Purdue.
The narrower framing of the field came less than a day before a marquee slate of games: Houston and Arizona were slated to play at 3 p. m., and Michigan and Duke were scheduled to tip at 6: 30 p. m. The preview was released roughly six hours before the Michigan–Duke game, which underscored how quickly outcomes on the court can interact with the committee’s projections for march madness 2026.
Keith Gill explains UConn loss and Texas Tech drop
Committee chair Keith Gill, who is also the Sun Belt commissioner, characterized Iowa State’s edging of UConn for the fourth No. 1 seed as a surprise and said the decision generated “a lot more debate” during the broadcast. Gill noted that UConn had been on the top line as recently as Wednesday, but the Huskies’ home loss to Creighton that night dropped them to the second line.
Gill also cited an injury as a specific factor: the news this week that Texas Tech guard JT Toppin suffered a season-ending knee injury prompted the committee to move the Red Raiders down one line. He identified Alabama and Arkansas as the next closest teams outside the top 16.
Regional alignments: Midwest, East, West and South
The committee mapped the projected No. 1 seeds into four regions. Michigan heads the Midwest with Houston, Florida and Virginia. Duke tops the East with Illinois, Kansas and Vanderbilt. Arizona leads the West with Purdue, Gonzaga and Michigan State. Iowa State anchors the South with UConn, Nebraska and Texas Tech.
Those regional groupings create notable early matchups under this preview: Iowa State and Texas Tech are lined up to meet in the Sweet 16, and Michigan and Michigan State were nearly placed together in the Midwest, which would have set up a potential third meeting in the Sweet 16 in Chicago.
Big Ten and Big 12 dominance and the committee’s balance rule
The preview made plain how conference strength influenced placement: the Big Ten and Big 12 combined to produce eight of the top 10 seeds and 12 of the top 16. To maintain competitive balance across regions, the committee applied a rule limiting the difference in the sum totals of the top four seeds among regions to no more than six.
That arithmetic pushed a move the committee described directly: Michigan State was sent to the West and Virginia was moved into the Midwest to achieve the required balance and to avoid overloading any single region with too many high seeds.
Seed lists, media mock differences and historical context
The committee’s top-16 list places the No. 3 seeds, in order, as Florida, Kansas, Nebraska and Gonzaga; the No. 4 seeds, in order, are Texas Tech, Michigan State, Vanderbilt and Virginia. The committee contrasted with a recent mock media selection conducted in Indianapolis that had Houston as the fourth No. 1 seed, listed Alabama and Arkansas as No. 4 seeds and left Texas Tech and Vanderbilt outside the top 16. The mock involved participants including C. J. Moore of The Athletic.
What makes this notable is the historical stickiness of early previews: in last year’s early bracket reveal, three of the No. 1 seeds remained No. 1 on Selection Sunday, and only two teams from that early reveal fell out of the top four seeds by Selection Sunday — Michigan shifting from a No. 4 to a No. 5 seed and Kansas sliding from a No. 4 to a No. 7 seed. Those prior movements underscore how the slate of remaining games and conference tournaments can still alter final placements ahead of the official reveal.
Countdown to Selection Sunday and Michigan’s remaining tests
Selection Sunday is less than a month away; the full field will be revealed on a March 15 show that will begin around 6 p. m. The preview noted that Michigan still faces a challenging stretch — matchups at Illinois, at Iowa and a home game against Michigan State, followed by the Big Ten Tournament — that will influence whether the Wolverines hold the projected No. 1 overall seed.
The committee’s February unveiling, the tenth annual event, gave a snapshot of march madness 2026 at a moment when in-season results, injury developments and arithmetic rules about regional balance are already shaping the projected bracket.
