Anthony Hernandez Favored in Strickland Main Event — UFC Houston Odds, Live Results and Model Picks

UFC returns to the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, on Saturday night with anthony hernandez installed as the betting favorite in a five‑round main event against Sean Strickland that carries potential title implications. The event follows a week off for the promotion, features a six‑fight main card and includes odds, model projections and a string of completed undercard results.

Anthony Hernandez: form, streak and finishing power

Anthony Hernandez (15-2, 1 NC), listed at No. 4 in the division, enters this matchup as the -270 favorite. The 32-year-old California native has been on a torrid pace since 2021, winning eight consecutive UFC bouts and notching six finishes. His recent stoppages include bonus‑winning wins over Roman Dolidze, Michel Pereira and Roman Kopylov. Hernandez fights under the nickname "Fluffy. "

Sean Strickland's return and recent history

Sean Strickland (29-7), ranked No. 3, makes his return after more than a year out of the cage. The 34-year-old controversial American last competed in early February 2025, losing a lackluster effort to then‑champion Dricus du Plessis in a failed bid to regain the UFC middleweight title. Strickland has won four of his past six bouts, including an upset of Israel Adesanya to win the belt in 2023, and six of his seven most recent UFC wins have come by decision.

Main card schedule, broadcast window and logistics

The preliminary card is scheduled to start at 5 p. m. ET, with the main card beginning live at 8 p. m. ET. The main card is a six‑fight lineup and will be available to subscribers free of additional charge. The event takes place at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, on Saturday night.

Co‑main and key undercard matchups

The co‑main event is a welterweight bout between Geoff Neal (16-7) and Uros Medic (12-3). Neal is positioned as the -198 favorite despite dropping three of his last four bouts; he is an Austin native looking to win in his home state. The card also includes a heavyweight matchup between Serghei Spivac and Ante Delija, listed with a -118 line for that heavyweight bout.

Model projections and betting angles

An MMA model used in projections runs 10, 000 simulations for every fight, simulating round‑by‑round outcomes with dynamic win probabilities that shift based on fighter attributes. The model accounts for round‑by‑round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds, and fighter‑specific finishing tendencies. The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit, a 6. 1% ROI. Past model outcomes include backing Justin Gaethe to win outright at +195 and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324.

One of the model's top picks for this card is Over 1. 5 rounds in Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic, presenting a +4. 2% edge and returning +130. The model is also targeting several underdogs across the card and highlights a best bet that returns over +500. Bettors and bettors‑curious viewers are advised to weigh those projections alongside the posted lines: anthony hernandez at -270 and Sean Strickland at +220 in the main event.

Full fight card notes and live results

Main event: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez — five rounds, middleweight, potential title contention on the line.

• Co‑main: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic — welterweight.
• Middleweight: Zachary Reese vs. Michel Pereira.
• Featherweight: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa.
• Heavyweight: Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija.
• Welterweight: Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell.

Reported undercard results from the evening include:

• Welterweight: Carlos Leal def. Chidi Njokuani unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28).
• Flyweight: Alibi Idiris def. Ode Osbourne unanimous decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27).
• Flyweight: Aldin Coria def. Luis Gurule unanimous decision (30-27 All).
• Women's bantamweight: Jocelyne Edwards def. Nora Cornolle submission (rear‑naked choke) at 2: 44 of R2.
• Welterweight: Punahele Soriano def. Ramiz Brahimaj split decision (29-28 All).
• Welterweight: Jean‑Paul Lebosnoyani def. Phil Rowe split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28).
• Featherweight: Jordan Leavitt def. Yadier de Valle unanimous decision (29-28 All).

What to watch next

Key storylines include how anthony hernandez's finishing form since 2021 matches up against a returning Sean Strickland who has leaned on decision outcomes in recent wins, whether Neal vs. Medic clears the 1. 5‑round threshold the model favors, and how the lone heavyweight tilt between Serghei Spivac and Ante Delija plays into the night's betting landscape. The listed odds and model projections offer clear betting narratives, while several undercard results are already finalized and populated scores and methods of victory for fans tracking performance trends.

Details may evolve as more live updates arrive; the schedule is subject to change.