Uh Basketball: UConn Returns to No. 1 Seed Projection After Houston's Loss

The latest bracketology shake-up has the UConn men’s basketball program back on the No. 1 seed line, a shift that matters with the NCAA Tournament now five weeks away. Uh Basketball projections from major bracketologists place the Huskies atop the South Region, creating distinct first-round matchups and renewed paths through the bracket.

Development details — Uh Basketball projections

’s Joe Lunardi and a group of writers from Sports have moved UConn to a No. 1 seed in the South Region after Houston’s 70-67 loss to Iowa State on Monday night. Lunardi lists UConn as the South’s top seed and pairs the Huskies with a No. 16 Appalachian State team in a first-round game slated for Philadelphia; the projected round-of-32 opponent would be the winner of No. 8 Auburn and No. 9 Indiana. Sports also slots UConn as the South’s No. 1, but gives them a first-round opponent of No. 16 Merrimack and a possible second-round meeting with the winner of No. 8 N. C. State and No. 9 Indiana.

Both projection sets place Houston among the top five seeds in the South Region, setting up the possibility of a UConn-versus-Houston matchup in the Elite Eight. Lunardi’s projected top five for the South lists UConn, Houston, Florida, Nebraska and Virginia; ’s top five lists UConn, Houston, Illinois, Virginia and Tennessee. The NCAA Tournament is scheduled to begin on March 17.

Context and escalation

UConn’s rise back to the top of bracket projections follows a brief midseason wobble and a Houston loss that shifted national mock-bracket thinking. The Huskies are 24-2 overall and 14-1 in Big East play, and they sit at No. 5 in the latest Top 25. UConn rebounded from a setback against St. John’s with consecutive wins over Butler and Georgetown, moves that bolstered its standing in projection exercises.

Bracketology activity has also been influenced by mock selection exercises this week that placed Michigan, Duke, Arizona and Houston among the top four 1-seeds. In the days after Iowa State’s victory over Houston, market-based measures of 1-seed probability showed notable movement, with one platform trading Iowa State to make the tournament as a 1-seed at 25 cents per share and Houston’s 1-seed future trading as low as 37 cents per share in the immediate aftermath.

Immediate impact

The immediate consequence of the reshuffle is concrete: UConn now faces clearly defined first-round opponents in competing bracket projections, and its projected path to later rounds would likely include a showdown with Houston in the regional final should both teams advance. UConn’s quadrant records underscore the team’s résumé: 6-2 in Quad I, 7-0 in Quad II, 6-0 in Quad III and 5-0 in Quad IV. Those figures feed the selection narrative and help explain why projection panels elevated the Huskies back to the top line despite a perception that the Big East is not among the nation’s strongest conferences; UConn is No. 10 in the NET Rankings and No. 9 on KenPom.

Forward outlook

With the tournament five weeks away, a series of high-profile regular-season games this weekend could further reshape the bracket picture. Scheduled matchups include Houston at Arizona at 3 p. m. ET and Michigan versus Duke at 6: 30 p. m. ET, contests described as the sort that can directly affect March seeding. Florida, another team discussed in 1-seed conversations, is set to play at noon ET this weekend, creating additional opportunities for movement among the projected top lines.

Selection mechanics remain focused on the quadrant system and the remaining slate of conference games. What makes this notable is that a single road loss for a leading contender—Houston’s defeat at Iowa State—was enough to flip consensus thinking and elevate a team with a strong quadrant résumé, demonstrating how narrow margins are at this stage in the season. Confirmed milestones ahead include the weekend slate of games that bracketologists have flagged as capable of altering seed lines and the tournament’s March 17 start date, which sets the clock for how much time teams have to solidify or improve their profiles.