Steve Hilton Surges to Top of California 2026 Governor Primary Poll
A new statewide poll finds Steve Hilton leading the nonpartisan primary for governor at 17%, a gain that reflects shifting support across party lines as undecided voters remain sizable.
Steve Hilton's surge and where his support is coming from
The survey puts Steve Hilton out front at 17%, with two other contenders—Eric Swalwell and Chad Bianco—tied at 14%. Tom Steyer registers 9% and Katie Porter 10%, while 21% of likely voters remain undecided. Since December, support for Hilton and Steyer each rose by five percentage points, while Swalwell gained two points and Porter fell by one point.
The poll further shows a divided Republican electorate: Hilton holds 38% of Republican support while Bianco follows closely at 37%. Hilton also claims a plurality of independent voters at 22%, a dynamic that helps explain his lead in the overall field.
Voter priorities, incumbents' standing and poll details
Economy is the top issue for 37% of respondents, up three points from the prior survey, and housing affordability is next at 19%. The governor's approval rating stands at 44% approval and 45% disapproval, reflecting a three-point drop in approval and a six-point rise in disapproval since December. Other statewide job-approval measures show mixed views among voters for different officeholders.
The poll asked about everyday strains on household budgets: 28% cited housing, 21% named utilities, 17% pointed to groceries, and 9% said healthcare; 11% said they experience no real strain. A plurality of voters—47%—oppose data centers being built in or near their community, while 24% support such construction. Opposition to data centers rises with educational attainment.
This statewide survey of likely voters was conducted February 13–14, 2026 ET and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Subgroup results carry wider credibility intervals because of smaller sample sizes, and undecided voters remain a notable factor that could change the race's dynamics moving forward.
What the lead means for the primary race
Hilton's rise—measured both in his point increase since December and in his strength with independents and a divided Republican base—marks a concrete shift in the early contours of the primary. With more than one in five voters undecided, the field remains fluid: small movements among undecided voters or additional shifts in support for Swalwell, Bianco, Porter or Steyer could reshape who advances from the nonpartisan primary.
As the campaign progresses, attention will focus on whether Hilton can hold the lead while persuading undecided voters and expanding his appeal beyond his current bases of support. The poll's snapshot captures a moment of momentum for Hilton but also underscores how close the race remains among top contenders.
