Trump Pushes Bigger irs tax refund Checks as Filing Season Builds Momentum
President Donald Trump is promoting substantial increases in irs tax refund amounts for the 2026 filing season, tying the gains to last year’s sweeping tax legislation. The White House has forecast a record refund season, but federal data and tax experts warn that benefits will vary across income groups and some refunds will be delayed by refundable credit rules.
What the president is promising
The president has credited the One Big Beautiful Bill, signed in mid-2025, with producing larger refunds for taxpayers filing their 2025 returns in 2026. He highlighted provisions that remove tax on tips, exempt some Social Security benefits for seniors, exclude overtime pay from federal income tax, and allow interest deductions on car loans. He further suggested that some filers could see more than a 20% return on their payments.
Those policy changes are intended to extend or make permanent several cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025. The administration is using the prospect of larger refunds as a headline benefit for households ahead of the April 15, 2026 (ET) filing deadline.
Where refunds stand and who is likely to benefit
Federal tax data for early filers shows average refunds are already higher this season. As of Feb. 6, 2026 (ET), refunds averaged approximately $2, 290, roughly 11% higher than the same point last year. Analysts estimate average refunds could climb by about $1, 000 per filer on average as the bulk of returns are processed.
However, gains are expected to be uneven. Analyses indicate the largest dollar increases will fall to higher-income households in the top 10% of earners, while lower-income filers will see smaller absolute gains. That pattern reflects how nonrefundable and refundable provisions interact with income and withholding patterns: wealthier filers tend to have larger tax liabilities and more scope to realize reductions as refunds when credits and deductions change.
Timing, holds and common delays
Tax season opened in late January, and many taxpayers who file electronically with direct deposit receive refunds within about three weeks after processing. The IRS generally processes standard e-filed returns and issues refunds in fewer than 21 days for straightforward filings.
But certain credits trigger mandatory holds that delay refunds. Returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit are subject to a statutory hold until mid-February to allow the agency time to verify income and identity. Other filings that can slow processing include returns with an Injured Spouse Allocation (Form 8379) and returns flagged for identity verification or math errors.
The IRS typically updates its public refund data weekly during the filing season and may post a larger snapshot later in February as more complex and higher-earning households finish their filings. Observers note the average refund amount often rises into mid-February and then tapers as the season progresses, since lower-income taxpayers tend to file earlier and wealthier filers file later.
Taxpayers who want the fastest possible refunds should file electronically, choose direct deposit, and double-check for common errors that trigger reviews. For those claiming refundable credits, expect a built-in delay tied to the federal verification schedule.
With the April 15, 2026 (ET) deadline approaching, the combination of new law provisions and routine IRS processing rules means many Americans will see larger checks this year, but the timing and size of those irs tax refund payouts will depend on income, credits claimed, and how returns are filed.
