northern lights forecast tonight: Chance rises as coronal hole and solar blast line up
Meteorologists are flagging a renewed chance to see the northern lights tonight after two solar events are expected to combine: a recurring coronal hole and a coronal mass ejection timed to arrive on Valentine’s Day. The setup could spark a G1 geomagnetic storm, with K-index values near 5 in the predawn hours, offering a shot at auroras for viewers farther south than usual.
What’s driving tonight’s aurora opportunity
The sun is delivering two complementary disturbances that increase the odds of a visible aurora. First, a recurring coronal hole — a darker region on the sun’s surface where magnetic fields open into space — is funneling fast solar wind toward Earth. Second, a coronal mass ejection (CME), ejected from the solar surface, is expected to arrive on Feb. 14 and amplify the solar wind’s impact.
When fast solar wind from coronal holes meets the magnetized plasma of a CME, the interaction can energize Earth’s magnetosphere and produce geomagnetic storms. Early forecasts anticipate a G1-class storm, which is on the weaker end of the scale but still capable of producing visible auroras under favorable conditions.
When and where to look — and what to expect
Peak activity is expected around 5 a. m. ET, just before daybreak on Sunday, when K-index values may approach 5. While many locations typically need K-index levels of 6 or 7 for bright, easily visible displays, a value near 5 can still yield faint or patchy auroras, especially if local skies are dark and clear.
Early risers in higher latitudes should keep an eye out on the northern horizon. Observers farther south may catch glimpses if the geomagnetic activity strengthens slightly or if the sky is exceptionally dark. Light pollution, cloud cover and local weather will be the decisive factors — clear, moonless skies away from city lights give the best chance.
Tips for spotting and capturing the display
To improve your odds: find a location with an unobstructed view of the northern horizon, allow your eyes 20–30 minutes to adjust to darkness, and avoid bright screens or headlamps. Bring a reclining chair or blanket to watch comfortably through the predawn hours.
If you plan to photograph the aurora, use a camera that allows manual control. Set a wide aperture, raise the ISO as needed, and start with exposures of several seconds; adjust based on how much the sky is lighting up. A tripod and remote trigger will minimize blur. Even modest displays can produce striking long-exposure images if composed against an interesting foreground.
Keep in mind that geomagnetic activity is inherently variable. The expected G1-class storm represents a modest increase in activity, and auroras may be faint or localized. Still, the combination of a coronal hole stream and an arriving CME creates a meaningful chance for a sighting tonight, particularly in northern states and rural areas with dark skies.
If you spot an aurora, document it with photos or video and share observations with local weather teams so they can track how the event unfolds. Even subtle displays are valuable for building a clearer picture of how solar events affect our near-Earth environment.
