Projected Scores for NFL Divisional Round: Model Predicts Spreads and Totals
The NFL divisional round is upon us, and teams are gearing up for crucial matchups. Austin Mock’s NFL Projection Model has provided insights into expected spreads and totals for this week’s games. Notably, the Buffalo Bills, led by quarterback Josh Allen, enter their game as 1-point underdogs against the Denver Broncos.
Projected Scores and Odds
This weekend features three teams playing at home, while the Los Angeles Rams are the only road favorite. The accuracy of these projections hinges on extensive play-by-play data analysis, accounting for various factors such as opponent strength and late-game scenarios.
How the Model Works
Mock’s model estimates potential outcomes by calculating expected points-per-game for both offense and defense. This data-driven approach allows for the derivation of expected spreads and totals for each matchup.
- Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
- Home teams favored: 3
- Road favorites: 1 (Los Angeles Rams)
Comparison with Betting Lines
The projections from the model closely align with betting lines from BetMGM, indicating a refined predictive capability. Remarkably, the spreads for all four games differ by less than half a point, while point totals vary within a point.
This analysis offers fans and bettors alike a better understanding of potential outcomes and helps set expectations for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.
