Will the Stock Market Surge on Monday?
Recent index movements
The FTSE 100 closed at 10,667 on Friday, 17 April. That level sits about 2.2% below its all-time peak of 10,910 reached on 27 February, the day before the conflict began.
The blue-chip index rose after comments from US President Donald Trump that the Strait of Hormuz remained open. The S&P 500 also climbed, hitting a fresh record of 7,126 after a 1.2% rise on the same day.
Pattern after geopolitical shocks
Recent market behaviour followed a familiar pattern. Geopolitical shocks prompted initial sell-offs, then buyers returned.
- Covid slump in 2020.
- Ukraine invasion in 2022.
- US tariff threats in 2025.
Filmogaz.com’s view is that panic selling often hurts long-term returns. Bargain-seeking investors have commonly driven the rebounds.
What could happen on Monday
Traders will watch if the stock market can surge when markets reopen on Monday. The recent rally might continue or reverse.
Reports that Iranian gunboats are targeting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger renewed selling. Either outcome should present buying opportunities for some investors.
Imperial Brands: an example of a beaten-down stock
Imperial Brands (LSE: IMB) emerged as a notable laggard after a trading update. The company reported a solid start to its 2026 financial year and maintained guidance for 3%–5% growth in underlying operating profit.
Market reaction and valuation
Investors focused on slippage in the Next Generation Products portfolio and weaker share in key regions. The stock fell sharply after the update.
Imperial Brands was the FTSE 100’s largest monthly faller, down more than 13.5% over the last month. Over 12 months it has slipped about 6.5%.
| Price-to-earnings ratio | 8.86 |
| Dividend yield | 5.77% |
Tobacco firms have been among the FTSE’s top performers this millennium despite declining smoking rates. Companies like Imperial and British American Tobacco expanded into alternatives such as vapes while maintaining dividend payouts.
Regulatory pressure remains a risk. Still, Imperial’s valuation and income look attractive to some investors at current levels.
Outlook
The next few days are likely to stay volatile. Investors should monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz closely.
There appears to be meaningful value left across the FTSE 100, regardless of short-term moves. Careful stock selection may reward patient buyers.
