2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted to Calm After Intense 2025 Activity

Colorado State University released a forecast on April 9 calling for a slightly below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The outlook projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.

Long-term Atlantic averages are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Filmogaz.com reviewed CSU’s forecast and the underlying data.

Why the season is expected to be quieter

Forecasters cite a transition from La Niña to El Niño before peak season. El Niño typically increases wind shear across the tropical Atlantic.

Higher wind shear hinders storm formation and intensification. Ocean temperatures are uneven across the basin.

Waters are warmer in the western Atlantic. Central and eastern areas appear slightly cooler.

Storm energy and landfall chances

CSU uses Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, as a key metric. The forecast calls for an ACE of 90, against a long-term average of 123.

A lower ACE suggests fewer long-lived or very intense systems. CSU also projects below-average odds for major hurricane landfalls in the U.S. and Caribbean.

Despite a reduced probability, forecasters stress that a single storm can cause major damage. Communities should remain prepared.

Forecast updates and timing

CSU plans routine forecast updates on June 10, July 8, and August 5. Those products will refine seasonal numbers and probabilities.

Context from the previous season

The 2025 Atlantic season was notably active. It produced 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.

That season included three Category 5 storms. After such intense 2025 activity, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to calm, according to CSU.