Pistons vs Thunder Projections: Top Player Prop Picks for March 30

The Detroit Pistons travel to Oklahoma City for a high-profile meeting with the Thunder on Monday night. Our computer models produced targeted player prop projections for the matchup. For readers tracking Pistons vs Thunder Projections: Top Player Prop Picks for March 30, below are the best statistical edges.

Game information

Top Pistons projections from the model

Paul Reed — Points Under 12.5 (-112)

• Model projection: 9.8 points.
• Trend: Reed has finished under this total in eight of his past ten games.
• Estimated edge: 27.52% in favor of the Under.

Daniss Jenkins — Points Under 16.5 (-120)

• Model projection: 14.2 points.
• Context: Recent tempo data points to fewer offensive opportunities.
• Estimated edge: 23.71% backing the Under.

Ausar Thompson — Points Under 11.5 (-112)

• Model projection: 10.3 points.
• Game status: Listed as questionable with an ankle issue.
• Estimated edge: 17.3% for the Under if he plays.

Top Thunder projections from the model

Ajay Mitchell — Points Under 14.5 (-120)

• Model projection: 11.5 points.
• Factor: Oklahoma City ranks among the league’s weakest in offensive rebounds.
• Team stat: Thunder average 9.6 offensive boards per game.

Chet Holmgren — Assists Over 1.5 (+140)

• Model projection: 1.6 assists.
• Trend: Holmgren recorded multiple assists in nine of his last 15 games.
• Estimated EV: 16.7%, marking this as a high-value play.

Cason Wallace — Points Under 7.5 (+102)

• Model projection: 6.5 points.
• Trend: Wallace has stayed under this mark in eight of his last ten outings.
• Note: One outlier game featured an unusual five three-pointers.

How to use these projections

These computer-based projections focus on statistical edges and recent trends. Use them to inform player prop decisions for tonight.

Filmogaz.com compiled and analyzed the data behind each pick. Adjust for late scratches and injury updates before placing any wagers.