Trader Earns Nearly $1 Million on Polymarket with Accurate Iran Predictions
A bettor recorded almost a seven-figure gain by placing well-timed wagers about military actions involving Iran. An analysis shared with Filmogaz.com traced the moves on Polymarket. The findings raise questions about insider activity on prediction markets.
Pattern of trades and outcomes
The trader placed dozens of five-figure bets since 2024. Many wins came hours before major strikes. Notable instances include October 2024 Israeli strikes, a February surprise attack that ignited the current war, and June 2025 US airstrikes on nuclear-related targets.
The analyst found an overall win rate near 83%. For trades larger than $10,000, the win rate reached 93%. Net profits approached $967,000, or nearly $1 million on Polymarket after accurate Iran predictions.
Blockchain analysis and red flags
Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics firm, conducted the review. Its CEO, Nick Vaiman, told Filmogaz.com the pattern strongly suggests insider activity. He cited timing, win rates, and on-chain connections as evidence.
The accounts used were anonymous on-chain. Investigators could not publicly link them to a specific person.
Expert reaction
Todd Phillips, a finance professor at Georgia State University and former CFTC adviser, called the statistics alarming. He noted typical high-frequency traders barely exceed a 50% win rate. He said 80–90% success over many large trades appears implausible without non-public information.
Regulatory and legal context
The bets were placed on Polymarket’s international platform. That version operates outside direct U.S. regulation.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved Polymarket to offer trades to U.S. customers last year. The U.S.-facing site is not fully operational yet. Observers say Americans can access the offshore platform via VPN.
The CFTC issued guidance reminding approved operators that insider trading is illegal. The agency said it can investigate and bring civil enforcement actions.
Past probes and proposed reforms
A prior criminal probe into whether Polymarket allowed U.S. users onto offshore platforms was closed months before the approval. Meanwhile, bipartisan lawmakers have proposed legislation banning federal officials from betting with non-public information.
Separately, Israeli authorities indicted two people. One individual is reported to be a military reservist accused of using classified material to place bets on Polymarket.
Industry responses and platform policies
Polymarket did not reply to Filmogaz.com’s requests for comment. Its CEO, Shayne Coplan, previously told Filmogaz.com the platform creates incentives for users to reveal information to markets.
Kalshi operates in the U.S. under full CFTC approval. The company bars insider trading and announced extra guardrails this week. Measures include more screening for public figures, such as athletes and politicians.
Filmogaz.com has a data partnership with Kalshi. Editorial staff are prohibited from participating in prediction markets.
Broader market views
Jason Trost, CEO of Smarkets, warned against conflating hard-to-find public data with illegal insider trading. He said some valuable information is public in theory but hard to obtain. He drew a distinction between that and materially non-public information, which crosses a legal line.
Some of the accounts linked to the flagged trader still hold active positions. The pattern has focused attention on prediction platforms and the risks they pose during geopolitical crises.
