Liberals and PQ Neck and Neck in Voter Intentions

The latest Léger-Le Journal-TVA poll indicates a close race between the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) and the Parti Québécois (PQ). The survey shows the PLQ under Charles Milliard at 30% and the PQ led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon at 31%. This marks a significant rise for the PLQ as support for Quebec sovereignty declines.

Decline in Sovereignty Support

Only 29% of respondents expressed support for a sovereignty referendum. The geopolitical instability linked to Donald Trump has prompted PQ’s St-Pierre Plamondon to clarify his position on a referendum. On February 23, he acknowledged that many Quebecers are genuinely fearful, suggesting a delay in any potential referendum until after Trump’s mandate. Recently, he remarked that the conflict in Iran could also influence feelings towards sovereignty.

Liberal Party Gains Momentum

The PLQ, which has seen a four-point increase since January 29, has improved its standing among voters. Léger’s analysis suggests that Milliard’s leadership has strengthened the Liberal vote during times of consecutive crises.

Voter Preferences and Trends

• Francophone Ridings: The PQ maintains a lead with 39%, while the PLQ has improved to 19%.
• Other Parties:
  • Conservative Party (Eric Duhaime): 15%
  • Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ): 13%
  • Québec Solidaire: 9%

Additionally, if Christine Fréchette were to lead the CAQ, the party might achieve 15% support, which remains low given that 70% of CAQ supporters favor her continuation over François Legault.

Poll Methodology

The survey conducted online involved 1,041 participants aged 18 and older from February 27 to March 2, 2026. Results were adjusted to represent Quebec’s demographics. A probabilistic sample of this size would have a maximum margin of error of ±3.04%, with a confidence level of 95%.

As the electoral landscape shifts, both the PLQ and PQ face pivotal challenges and opportunities leading into upcoming elections.