Pakistan and Taliban Near Open War, With No Clear Winner
The ongoing tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban have escalated dramatically, with both sides showing military aggression. Analysts indicate that this situation reflects a precarious balance, with neither party possessing the capacity for a decisive victory.
Context of the Conflict
On a recent occasion, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja M Asif declared an “open war” with the Afghan Taliban. This statement followed a series of airstrikes by Pakistan targeting Taliban positions in Afghanistan, specifically in major cities including Kabul, Paktika, and Kandahar.
Recent Military Actions
Pakistan’s military campaign included numerous airstrikes that were described as a response to previous Taliban incursions, which resulted in the deaths of 20 police personnel and civilians. In retaliation, the Taliban claimed to have launched successful attacks on military targets within Pakistan, marking a significant escalation in hostilities.
- Pakistan reported over 270 Taliban fighters killed.
- Afghan Taliban announced the loss of 55 Pakistani soldiers.
- Both sides’ casualty and damage claims remain challenging to verify independently.
Degraded Diplomatic Relations
The relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban has deteriorated significantly since the Taliban took power in 2021. Initially welcomed, the rise of the Taliban led to growing tensions largely due to accusations against the Taliban for sheltering Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group conducting attacks in Pakistan.
The Taliban, for its part, accuses Pakistan of supporting IS-linked insurgents, resulting in a deep-seated mutual suspicion.
Escalation of Hostilities
Claiming their patience has run out, Pakistani officials have warned that their military operations may target the Taliban’s governance structures themselves. This marks a shift from counter-terror operations to direct confrontations.
Michael Kugelman, an expert on South Asia, noted that this latest round of violence is unprecedented since the Taliban assumed control. The involvement of the Taliban’s ruling entities in military strikes raises concerns regarding the potential for open warfare.
The Civilian Impact
As the conflict escalates, the civilian population faces increasing dangers. Afghanistan is already experiencing severe humanitarian crises. Further military conflict could exacerbate this misery.
- China and the United Nations have expressed concerns about the situation.
- Russia has called for immediate ceasefire and dialogue.
Looking Ahead
Despite the aggressive posturing, analysts suggest that both Pakistan and the Taliban lack the means for a victorious campaign against the other. Pakistan’s economy is under strain, which limits its military ambitions. Conversely, the Taliban’s fragmented structure complicates its ability to mount a sustained conventional war.
The current cycle of retaliation leaves open the possibility of negotiated resolution, although mistrust runs deep. The continued escalation risks further civilian suffering, emphasizing the need for dialogue before the situation deteriorates beyond repair.
