Champions League Draw: Chelsea v PSG, Man City v Real Madrid — Round of 16 Paths, Rankings and Predictions

The champions league draw confirmed a blockbuster last-16 phase with Chelsea drawn against holders Paris St-Germain and Manchester City scheduled to meet Real Madrid for a fifth straight season. The matchups set a clear path to the later rounds, headline fixtures across two mid-March weeks and fresh context for midseason rankings and predictions.

Champions League Draw: Key ties and schedule

The first legs of the last 16 will be played on 10 and 11 March, with the second legs to take place on 17 and 18 March. The draw places Chelsea against Paris St-Germain — a rematch of last year’s Fifa Club World Cup final in New Jersey when Chelsea beat the European champions 3-0 — and sets Manchester City up to face Real Madrid once more.

Who plays whom: the full Premier League contingent

Six Premier League clubs have qualified for the last 16, but there are no all-English ties. Arsenal, who finished top of the league phase as the only team to win all eight games, will face Bayer Leverkusen. Newcastle United will meet Barcelona and will be at home for their first leg with Barca. Liverpool take on Galatasaray, and Tottenham have been drawn against Atletico Madrid. Their Premier League rivals are all at home for their second leg having qualified for the last 16 automatically.

Rankings, favourites and Opta projections

Pre-draw rankings and projections influenced expectations for the last 16. Opta rate Arsenal as favourites to win the competition by some distance, giving Arsenal a 27. 40% chance of being crowned European champions for the first time, with Bayern Munich ranked next best at 14. 28%. Leverkusen, who will face Arsenal or Bayern Munich in the round of 16, were given an 18% chance of making the quarter-finals, the lowest among the remaining teams.

Form snapshots from the ranking assessment

• Leverkusen sit sixth in the Bundesliga with 12 wins in 22 matches. Three of their 10 Champions League games were against Olympiacos, and they won just one of those. They lost 7-2 to Paris Saint-Germain and drew with Copenhagen and PSV, who finished 31st and 28th respectively in the league phase. Their only match against Bayern this season ended 3-0 to the Bavarians; Bayern had sent them out of the competition in the last 16 in 2024-25.
• Atalanta produced a comeback from a 2-0 first-leg deficit against Borussia Dortmund described as a Champions League classic. The side is the only Serie A representative remaining, beat Chelsea 2-1 at home in December and are on a nine-game unbeaten run in the league. Yet three of their last Champions League matches ended in defeats, including a home collapse to lose 3-2 against Athletic Club and a 1-0 defeat away at Union Saint-Gilloise.
• Spurs are on a nine-game winless run in the Premier League. Atletico Madrid have not won three successive league games since November, while Galatasaray nearly blew a three-goal first-leg lead to 10-man Juventus. Per Opta, Spurs have the fifth-best chance (57%) to reach the quarter-finals, behind Arsenal, Liverpool, Bayern and Manchester City. However, Spurs are in a genuine relegation fight, carry a long injury list, and their coach Igor Tudor’s Champions League record stands at two wins in nine matches with Juventus and Marseille.
• Sporting pulled off a major upset by beating PSG 2-1 after holding Bayern goalless for 65 minutes and even led for 11 of those minutes. They then won 3-2 at Athletic Club to secure a top-eight spot on Matchday 8.

Headlines, reactions and route to the final

City, Newcastle and Liverpool all met their last-16 opponents during the league phase of this season’s competition; City’s win in Madrid in December was their ninth meeting with Real Madrid since April 2022. Chelsea’s director of football David Barnard said the tie will be tough but holds no fear and urged a game-by-game approach, calling it a strong opener to face. City’s director of football Hugo Viana described the fixture with Real as a big game for both teams and said it felt like a final. Liverpool ambassador Ian Rush highlighted the advantage of having the second leg at home and praised the Anfield atmosphere.

The route to the final is already set: if Newcastle and Tottenham both progress, they would meet in the quarter-finals, while Chelsea and Liverpool would meet in the other half of the draw. The final is scheduled to be played at the Puskas Arena in Budapest, Hungary, on Saturday, 30 May.

Context for the draw and next steps

After 197 matches (qualifiers included), 16 teams remain and the draw at the House of European Football in Nyom, Switzerland — held at 11am GMT (6am ET) on Friday — defines each side’s path. Rankings and projections will be updated following completion of the draw and as ties are played. A final detail in the ranking commentary about a potential Sporting–Bodo/Glimt scenario is unclear in the provided context.