Fiorentina Vs Jagiellonia Białystok: Comeback risk sharpens after a three-goal lead is thrown away

Why this matters now: Fiorentina Vs Jagiellonia Białystok has flipped from a routine second-leg finish to a match where qualification is suddenly in doubt. A 3-0 first-leg win in Poland — highlighted by Rolando Mandragora's top-corner free kick — initially left the Italian side comfortable, but Bartosz Mazurek's later hat-trick erased that cushion and turned the tie into a tense, open finish.

Risk and uncertainty: why Fiorentina's position feels fragile

The headline risk is simple: a three-goal margin existed, then it disappeared. That reversal underlines what Paolo Vanoli warned — nothing should be taken for granted. The coach has been balancing the club's Conference League ambitions with a domestic fight for survival, a tension that changes how the return match must be approached physically and mentally.

Fiorentina Vs Jagiellonia Białystok — match snapshot and scheduling

The tie is the Conference League play-off ending at Stadio Artemio Franchi, with kickoff scheduled for 17. 45 GMT (18. 45 CET). Fiorentina entered the second leg after a 3-0 victory in Poland; that advantage was the largest of any team in this season's knockout-phase playoffs before the comeback unfolded.

What happened on the pitch: from Mandragora's free kick to Mazurek's hat-trick

In the first meeting in Poland, a second-half surge featured Rolando Mandragora's superb free kick into the top corner and helped Fiorentina build a three-goal cushion. The narrative shifted dramatically when Bartosz Mazurek responded with a hat-trick, allowing Jagiellonia to overturn the deficit and throw away Fiorentina's earlier safety margin.

Team news and selection mechanics

Paolo Vanoli has leaned on recent changes since arriving in November, and squad management is central. Dodo is suspended for the next Serie A match, so he starts the European fixture in a more advanced attacking role, which gives Jack Harrison an opportunity to rest. Albert Gudmundsson is named on the bench after an ankle injury. Vanoli has emphasized both defensive focus and energy conservation, noting a shift in the team's sprinting numbers and collective spirit as part of recent improvement.

Precedent, form and stakes for both clubs

Fiorentina bring a mixed recent history: they have been Conference League runners-up twice in the last three seasons and are the only side to exceed 100 goals in this competition's history. Historically they have progressed from all six knockout ties in which they won the first leg. Domestically, however, they finished 15th in the league phase this season and remain in a relegation fight; that context shapes priorities.

Jagiellonia arrive with contrasting markers. Before their second-half collapse in the first match, the Bialystok club had been hard to beat in Europe — including qualifiers, a home loss to Rayo Vallecano was their sole defeat in a dozen continental fixtures. They were unbeaten in six continental away games and had drawn each of the last three before the turnaround. The Ekstraklasa leaders, who claimed their first league title in 2024, need a win by at least three goals to avoid exit in the first knockout round. A recent 1-1 draw with Radomiak Radom left Jagiellonia two points clear of a crowded chasing pack with one game in hand, though they have not won any of their last three matches.

• Fiorentina: four games unbeaten across all competitions; beat Tuscan rivals Pisa 1-0 on Monday Moise Kean's strike; that victory was only their third win from 13 home league games this term.
• Jagiellonia: sole home European defeat to Rayo in a dozen fixtures; unbeaten in six continental away games prior to the reversal.
• Historical edge: Polish clubs have managed just two wins in 32 European away ties versus Serie A opponents, with 25 losses — though Fiorentina were on the wrong side of Italian defeats to Lech Poznan in 2015 and 2023.

Here's the part that matters: formlines and prior results give context, but the swing created by Mazurek's hat-trick has shifted the tactical and psychological balance. The real question now is how Vanoli will reconcile conserving energy for Serie A with the need to secure European progression.

It’s easy to overlook, but the tie now tests depth and match management more than it did after the first-leg scoreline. Recent Champions League comebacks have been used as a warning about complacency, reinforcing that momentum can flip quickly.

• Fiorentina still face either Strasbourg or Rakow Czestochowa in the last 16 if they progress.
• Qualification is no longer automatic despite the earlier three-goal advantage.
• Team decisions — Dodo starting, Harrison resting, Gudmundsson benched — will be watched for signs of priority between competitions.
• Kickoff is at 17. 45 GMT (18. 45 CET) at Stadio Artemio Franchi; preparations and selection will determine whether risk turns into recovery or collapse.

Key takeaways: the tie has moved from a likely finish to a finely balanced contest; squad rotation, recent form and in-game management will decide which club advances; both historical precedent and recent reversals give legitimate reasons for caution on both sides.