Citrini Research: The Viral Substack Post That Has Sparked New AI Worries on Wall Street
citrini research published a viral memo described as a “scenario, not a prediction, ” and the post has unnerved investors by outlining a near-future in which autonomous AI agents upend jobs, markets and mortgages. The warning has coincided with price moves across major stocks and the S&P, sharpening debate about how fast AI-driven disruption could ripple through the economy.
Citrini Research’s scenario: timeline, unemployment and Occupy Silicon Valley
The scenario, issued by the little-known US firm that provides analysis of “transformative ‘megatrends’, ” is presented as beginning now and ending in June 2028. It forecasts US unemployment cresting over 10% and even describes an Occupy Silicon Valley movement setting up camp outside OpenAI and Anthropic’s offices. In the interim the memo lays out a chain of events in which widespread use of AI agents guts software companies, spreads into private credit and mortgages, and triggers what Citrini calls an unchecked downward spiral.
Who wrote it and the ‘global intelligence crisis’ thesis from Citrini Research
James Van Geelen, identified as the founder of the analysis firm, frames the work as a “thought exercise” about a “global intelligence crisis. ” Van Geelen is described as a top finance writer on a newsletter platform and as a former Los Angeles paramedic with degrees in biology and psychology. He has told Demetri Kofinas of the Hidden Forces podcast in April 2025 that a “sword of Damocles” was hanging over the white-collar employee. Van Geelen has also said his real-world investment portfolio surged more than 200% since May 2023. The memo is presented as a postmortem dispatch written from June 2028 that charts an arc from record corporate profits to mass layoffs that hollow out the American consumer base.
Market reaction: S&P, software stocks and steep drops for payment and delivery names
The release coincided with a sharp market wobble: the S&P dropped more than 1% on Monday, and the software component of the index fell to its lowest level since the so-called “liberation day” tariff announcement in April. Citrini’s text specifically names Uber, DoorDash, Mastercard and American Express; those shares were cited as having fallen between 4% and 6% this week. Neil Wilson, an analyst at Saxo Capital Markets, called the memo “real doomsday porn stuff, which is always lapped up by readers and market commentators and the press, ” while also saying he does not think the scenario is certain to play out and calling it “a bit of a wake-up call that the economy already no longer resembles the one just a few years ago. ”
Agent-driven disruption to software, services and payment networks
Citrini’s scenario begins with a “jump in capability” for autonomous AI agents, a change the firm writes has already happened and points at Anthropic’s Claude Code and OpenAI’s Codex as recent examples that have wowed users. Those agents, the memo argues, dent software-as-a-service companies such as Monday. com, Zapier and Asana by offering businesses a cheaper way to do in-house tasks like managing databases and organising workflows. That dynamic, Citrini says, forces businesses such as Oracle that rely on long-term contracts into “a race to the bottom” on pricing.
The scenario further imagines every consumer using a personal agent to transact and conduct business, sidelining companies that monetise what Citrini calls “friction, ” for example travel and estate agencies that serve as middlemen for booking holidays or buying property. Developers and civilians, the memo adds, begin coding their own food delivery apps rather than using DoorDash, fragmenting the market and destroying margins for legacy providers; business for Uber and other ride‑sharing apps evaporates. For payments, Citrini envisages agents choosing cryptocurrency because transaction costs are cheaper, a shift that would gut traditional payment providers such as Visa and Mastercard. The memo stresses that “habitual app loyalty, the entire basis of the business model, simply didn’t exist for a machine. ”
Ghost GDP, loss of ‘friction’ and the feedback loop with no brake
The memo coins the term “ghost GDP” for economic output inflated by AI that never circulates through the real economy because, as Citrini puts it, “machines spend zero dollars on discretionary goods. ” Citrini argues that AI adoption will prompt firms to lay off white-collar workers to protect margins, which contracts consumer spending and forces yet more AI cost-cutting — a “negative feedback loop with no natural brake. ” At the heart of the thesis is the displacement of what the firm calls the scarce input of modern economic history: human intelligence — the ability to analyse, decide, create, persuade and coordinate — which Citrini labels “friction. ” Once agents operate 24/7 to optimise decisions, businesses built on habitual human behaviour, the memo warns, face an existential threat.
