Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija: UFC Houston prediction, odds split and why Delija is the official pick

Fresh matchup analysis centers on ante delija as he headlines the main card at UFC Fight Night 267 in Houston. The matchup — set for Saturday, February 21, 2026 at the Toyota Center — carries split lines, detailed stat contrasts and a clear official pick: Delija by knockout in Round 1. This preview lays out recent form, the numbers that matter, and event logistics ahead of the roughly 9: 10 p. m. ET walk to the cage.

Ante Delija: pick, odds and main-card spotlight

Ante Delija enters the main card with imperative momentum to return to the win column after a contentious loss; his most recent defeat featured a controversial stop and restart that produced a first-round loss. Prior to that, Delija won his UFC debut by finishing Marcin Tybura in the first round. One set of odds lists Delija at -142 while another listing shows Delija at -135, reflecting modest public and oddsmaker favor toward the Croatian. The official pick for this matchup is Delija by knockout in Round 1.

Serghei Spivac's recent form and fight history

Serghei Spivac arrives with a 17-6 MMA ledger and an 8-6 UFC record. He is coming off back-to-back losses that made for a rough 2025 campaign: a first-round stoppage in January at the hands of Jailton Almeida and a decision loss in June to Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Spivac's last win was a first-round submission of Marcin Tybura in August 2024. Observers note Spivac as one of roughly three heavyweights on the roster who can competently grapple, but they also point to his glass-cannon tendencies and struggles versus powerful athletes — factors that contribute to skepticism about his reliability in this matchup.

Numbers breakdown: size, striking, wrestling and defense

Stat lines paint a sharp contrast between the two heavyweights. Spivac is listed at 31 years old, 260 lbs, 6'3" with a 78" reach, and fights orthodox. Delija is listed at 35 years old, 239 lbs, 6'3" with a 78" wingspan, and also fights orthodox. Nicknames in the preview are "Polar Bear" for Spivac and "Walking Trouble" for Delija.

• Significant strikes per minute: Spivac 3. 45, Delija 4. 81.
• Significant strike accuracy: Spivac 48%, Delija 45%.
• Significant strikes absorbed per minute: Spivac 4. 25, Delija 2. 65.
• Strike defense: Spivac deflects 50% of significant strikes thrown his way; Delija stops 38%.
• Wrestling: Spivac scores takedowns 4. 21 times per 3 rounds, finishing 62% of takedown attempts and stuffing 63% of opponents' tries. Delija finishes 15% of takedown tries and stuffs 15% of attempts against him.
• Submission attempts: Spivac 0. 5 subs per 3 rounds; Delija 0. 4 subs per 15 minutes.

Why the pick favors Delija and what to expect

The case for Delija blends recent controversy, finishing upside and matchup traits. The preview leans toward Delija as a redemption fight after the Nevada State Athletic Commission and onsite officials botched his last fight through a controversial stop and restart. Observers also note that while Spivac's grappling makes him a live underdog, his glass-cannon profile and relative struggles against powerful athletes reduce trust in his ability to withstand Delija's finishing aggression. One analyst's official call is Delija by knockout in Round 1.

Event logistics, odds variance and other bouts to watch

The fight is scheduled for the main card at the Toyota Center in Houston on February 21, 2026, with an approximate walk to the cage at 9: 10 p. m. ET. One odds board lists Delija -142 and Spivac +116, while another opener showed Delija -135 and Spivac +115, underscoring minor market variance. The bout will stream live on a streaming service. The card also notes an additional match of interest when Zach Reese meets Michel Pereira.

Bonus note: one preview included a promotional offer tied to a complimentary pick for new account sign-ups, a marketing detail that accompanied one set of predictions.

Final summary: ante delija is favored in multiple lines and is the official pick by knockout in the opening round, while Spivac's grappling toolkit and previous finishes keep him a plausible threat despite recent setbacks. Event timing, odds variation and the lingering controversy from Delija's prior result are all variables to monitor as fight night approaches.