Matteo Berrettini Draws Ignacio Buse in Rio Open Quarterfinal as Upsets Leave Draw Wide Open

Matteo Berrettini will face Ignacio Buse in a Rio Open quarterfinal scheduled for Friday, February 20, 2026, in a match that has drawn attention as the tournament continues to produce unexpected results. The pairing matters because both players reached the last eight after comeback wins, and the broader draw has been reshaped by a wave of early upsets.

What happened and what’s new — Matteo Berrettini vs Ignacio Buse

The quarterfinal between Matteo Berrettini and Ignacio Buse is set for the Jockey Club Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Both players advanced three-set victories in the previous round: Berrettini recovered from a first-set deficit to beat Dusan Lajovic 3-6, 6-4, 6-2 in a match lasting two hours and nine minutes; Buse overturned a one-set deficit to defeat Joao Fonseca 5-7, 6-3, 6-4, saving eight of nine break-point opportunities in that match.

The tournament has been unusually volatile: only one of the top eight seeds reached the quarterfinal stage, leaving the title race more open than initially expected. Pre-match analysis heading into the quarterfinals generally lists Berrettini as the favorite, with several previews projecting a three-set win for the veteran. Other match previews have suggested the contest could exceed 21. 5 games given both players’ recent three-set results.

Behind the headline

The Rio Open’s unexpected trajectory to this point frames why this matchup is consequential. The draw’s early eliminations of higher-ranked seeds have increased the value of experience and momentary form. Commentary ahead of the quarterfinals highlights Berrettini’s deeper experience in later tournament stages and the potency of his serve and forehand as practical advantages. Buse arrives with confidence from a resilient performance against a seeded, home-favorite opponent and with demonstrated ability to save break points under pressure.

Stakeholders with immediate interest in this match include the two players as they seek to convert momentum into a deeper run, tournament organizers managing a high-profile latter-stage schedule, and observers tracking how upsets have reshaped the pathway to the title.

What we still don’t know

• Exact start time for the quarterfinal on Friday, February 20, 2026.
• Any last-minute fitness or medical updates for either player before the match.
• Which top-eight seed remains in the quarterfinals and how that position affects the subsequent draw.
• How each player’s in-match tactics will adapt to conditions at the venue on match day.
• The definitive match outcome; current projections remain predictions rather than results.

What happens next

• Berrettini wins in three sets — trigger: the veteran converts service games and imposes his forehand in key exchanges, completing the comeback pattern from the prior round.
• Buse pulls off an upset — trigger: sustained break-point saving and aggressive baseline play that neutralizes Berrettini’s serve advantage.
• Match extends long and goes over 21. 5 games — trigger: both players replicate prior three-set performances leading to extended rallies and shifting momentum.
• Physical issue or retirement alters the contest — trigger: any late-emerging fitness concern for either player during warm-ups or early games.
• Another unexpected upset reshuffles the semifinal picture — trigger: continued volatility in the bottom half of the draw as seen in earlier rounds.

Why it matters

Near-term, this quarterfinal serves as a barometer for whether experience and firepower or momentum and resilience will carry greater weight in a tournament already defined by surprises. A Berrettini victory would reintroduce a seasoned contender into an open field, while a Buse win would reinforce the narrative of breakthrough runs reshaping the Rio Open. For the event, continued unpredictability may increase spectator interest and change strategic priorities for remaining participants navigating an atypical path to the title.

Observers should monitor official match timing, any pre-match fitness notices, and how both players’ tactical choices unfold on Friday, February 20, 2026 — those immediate details will determine which of the scenarios above comes to pass.