creighton vs uconn: Huskies Set to Torch Bluejays Again in Storrs
UConn hosts Creighton at 7 p. m. ET on Wednesday, Feb. 18, in a rematch of a meeting earlier this season that ended in a lopsided Huskies win. No. 5 UConn (24-2) looks to extend its dominance at home against a 13-13 Creighton squad that has slipped defensively since a key frontcourt departure.
Why the Huskies’ offense should control the game
UConn enters with one of the nation’s most efficient attacks in conference play, ranking near the top in adjusted offensive metrics and leading the league in effective field goal percentage at home. The Huskies scored 85 in the earlier meeting, cruising to an 85-58 win in Omaha, and the matchup tendencies point to another high-scoring night for the hosts.
Creighton’s defense has deteriorated in recent weeks. The Bluejays have allowed 82. 6 points per game over their last 10 outings and sit at or near the bottom of the conference in adjusted defensive measures and opponent eFG% (57. 3%) during that stretch. Without a dominant rim protector to erase mistakes at the rim, Creighton is vulnerable to inside-out pressure and kick-out threes.
UConn’s perimeter weapons are well-suited to exploit those weaknesses. One sharpshooter is hitting beyond the arc at a solid clip (37. 1% from three) and has been connecting frequently in recent games, while another has a history of elite three-point efficiency and has found a hot streak, sinking 11 triples over the last two outings. Those perimeter looks will open driving lanes and create heavy rebounding opportunities for the Huskies.
Matchups, rotations and betting angle
Creighton will lean on its better defenders and rebounders to keep this within reach; one guard/wing has been the Bluejays’ top stop-gap defender and has also provided steady boards, clearing 5. 5 rebounds in a majority of recent games. But the team’s lack of wing athleticism and absence of an elite shot-blocker make containing UConn’s balanced assault a difficult task.
The first half could set the tone. Creighton has surrendered 39 or more first-half points in seven of eight games recently, while UConn averages about 41 first-half points at home. Those splits suggest the Huskies will push early and force Creighton to play catch-up.
From a wagering perspective, the clear play in this spot is the UConn team total. A recommended bet is UConn team total Over 79. 5. The Huskies are efficient enough to clear that number even if Creighton scrambles defensively; UConn’s recent games have trended toward high team totals, and UConn’s overs have cashed in seven straight outings. Creighton’s recent slate has also been conducive to games that go over, with 10 of their last 14 contests hitting the over.
Key things to monitor pregame: whether Creighton adjusts its rotation to get more athletic wings on the floor, the availability and usage of UConn’s primary shooters, and tempo decisions early that could influence foul trouble and bench minutes. If UConn controls pace and knocks down open threes, the team total should be comfortably reached.
Bottom line
The rematch favors UConn across matchup metrics. Expect the Huskies’ efficient offense to generate another high-scoring night in Storrs, with the UConn team total Over 79. 5 standing out as the best play for this matchup. Tipoff is set for 7 p. m. ET on Wednesday, Feb. 18 — and the matchup shapes up as a clear offensive edge in UConn’s favor.
