NASCAR 2026 preview: Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson emerge as top title threats
The 2026 Cup Series season opens with fresh format changes and familiar names at the top of preseason ballots. Experts view Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson as the drivers most likely to translate season-long excellence into a championship, while several younger racers are poised to make big jumps. The Daytona 500 begins the campaign on Feb. 15 at 2: 30 p. m. ET, and it may already hint at who can sustain the consistency the new championship structure rewards.
Top championship picks: Bell vs. Larson
Panel consensus is clear: this is shaping up as a two-horse race in projections. Christopher Bell is forecast to be a dominant force — a candidate for six to seven wins and heavy laps led — with the on-track production that could make him Driver of the Year even if the title chase tightens late. Kyle Larson remains a heavyweight as well; evaluators point to his ability to combine a strong regular season with a potent postseason run, forecasting a third career title that would cement his standing among the sport’s elites.
Driver of the Year favorites and what consistency now means
With the championship format shifting away from a single-race finale and the old elimination model, sustained excellence across the 38-race slate is the clearest path to season-long honors. That benefits drivers who pile up points through steady top finishes and frequent laps led rather than brief hot streaks. Christopher Bell’s projected volume of wins and laps led puts him squarely in that category, while several established stars who can pair speed with reliability are also candidates for the end-of-year accolades.
Breakout candidates: Hocevar and others ready to erupt
Younger talents are expected to make noise in 2026. Carson Hocevar is singled out as a likely breakout performer — the kind of driver who already shows speed and may simply need cleaner finishes and fewer incidents to turn pace into victories. Expect one or two wins from him as a realistic target; those first trips to Victory Lane could unlock a multi-year stretch of Chase contention. Other mid-career drivers who posted flashes of speed last season could also step up in a format that rewards consistency over one-off heroics.
Rookie outlook: Zilisch’s learning curve and upside
Rookie expectations are measured. With only one clear rookie contender on full-time duty, the realistic forecast for Zilisch is a respectable first season in the Cup ranks — cracking the top 25 in the standings would be an achievement given how recent his first oval experience remains. Observers stress the steep jump in competition at this level and caution against expecting immediate dominance; learning the nuances of traffic, tire management and race-stage strategy will be the priority early on.
Key storylines to watch through the season
The return of the Chase-era championship format is the overarching storyline. It changes how teams plan race-by-race and alters the value of week-to-week consistency. Watch crew chief-driver pairings that can sustain performance across stretches of races; teams that master steady points accumulation will have the edge. Midseason form swings, the timing of first wins for breakout candidates, and how veterans respond after down years will all shape who becomes a true threat when the Chase field is set.
The season kickoff at Daytona will provide an early temperature check, but the new system means the full narrative will take weeks to unfold. Expect Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson to headline conversations all year, while a handful of younger drivers seek to turn promise into permanence.
