Harvard basketball favored heavily over Brown in Friday night Ivy matchup

Harvard (13-9) will host Brown (7-14) at Lavietes Pavilion on Friday, Feb. 13, 2026, with tip scheduled for 7: 00 PM ET. Predictive models and recent form both tilt in Harvard's favor, but Brown will search for momentum after a discouraging road loss.

Matchup overview

The Crimson enter this game as clear favorites. Simulation-based projections place Harvard as the likely winner, with a predicted final score near 70-62 and a win probability that substantially favors the home team. Brown will try to slow the game and find scoring consistency, while Harvard aims to control the glass and limit second-chance opportunities.

Brown's recent form and profile

Brown comes into Cambridge with a 7-14 record and offensive struggles that have left the Bears averaging 70. 7 points per game. They shoot 43. 3% from the floor and 32. 4% from three (154 of 475), and their free-throw clip sits at 70. 3%. The Bears average 36. 1 rebounds per contest and have logged 326 assists on the season, but turnovers and defensive lapses have been a concern.

In their most recent outing, Brown fell 81-69 at home against Yale. The Bears finished 44. 8% from the field (26 of 58) and hit nine of 25 attempts from beyond the arc. Luke Paragon led the way with 15 points on 6-of-11 shooting and pulled down three rebounds in 26 minutes. Brown has shown an ability to force turnovers, averaging 13. 4 steals/turnover-creation per game, but the team has also allowed opponents clean looks and surrendered 68. 6 points per game on defense.

Harvard's strengths and recent performance

Harvard arrives off a 71-58 victory over Dartmouth, a game in which the Crimson grabbed 34 rebounds (30 defensive, four offensive), turned the ball over just nine times and recorded five steals. The team has built its success on disciplined defense, limiting opponents' assist opportunities and protecting the paint.

The Crimson's defensive metrics stand out: they keep opposing shooting percentages in check and are effective at closing passing lanes. That combination makes life difficult for teams that rely on perimeter shots and secondary offense after misses — two areas Brown has leaned on this season.

Betting picture and model projections

Advanced simulations give Harvard a commanding edge, placing its win probability well above 50% and projecting a margin in the neighborhood of eight points. The model's numbers also suggest Brown can cover a moderate spread — the Bears retain some value as an underdog — but Harvard is the clean pick to win straight up.

Oddsmakers have set a spread and total that reflect the expected pace and scoring; market movements in the hours before tip will determine exact lines. If Brown can hold pace and knock down early threes, it will keep the game within reach. If Harvard controls the glass and reduces turnovers, the projected margin should widen.

Key things to watch

1) Rebounding battle: Harvard's ability to limit offensive rebounds will be crucial. Brown averages 36. 1 boards a game, but Harvard's recent defensive rebounding numbers suggest the Crimson can blunt second-chance points. 2) Turnover margin: Brown generates turnovers but must avoid giving the Crimson quick transition buckets. 3) Perimeter shooting: Brown needs hot three-point shooting to keep pace. If the Bears struggle from long range, Harvard's build-up of possessions and interior control will likely decide the game. 4) Bench impact: Depth could tilt the late-game minutes; whichever bench provides consistent scoring and defense will have an outsized influence on the final stretch.

Expect an organized Harvard attack that prioritizes defense, with Brown searching for timely shooting and energy. Tip is set for 7: 00 PM ET on Friday, Feb. 13, 2026, at Lavietes Pavilion.