Rising Stars game: Who’s the favorite to win tonight’s Castrol showcase?

The NBA’s next wave takes center stage tonight as Castrol Rising Stars tips at 9 p. m. ET, a fast-paced, target-score mini-tournament featuring four squads loaded with rookies and sophomores. Debate has zeroed in on three frontrunners — Team Melo, Team Vince and Team T‑Mac — each with a convincing case to lift the trophy by night’s end.

Schedule and format tonight

The event opens at 9 p. m. ET. Two semifinals set the stage: Team Vince meets Team T‑Mac at approximately 9: 55 p. m. ET, while Team Austin faces Team Melo in the other semi. Winners advance to the final at about 10: 35 p. m. ET. Games are played to a fixed target score, putting a premium on quick runs, shot-making and situational defense.

The case for Team Melo: size, shot-making and a statement in waiting

Even with injuries shuffling the board, Team Melo still profiles as the most balanced blend of length, scoring and defensive versatility. A big storyline is Ace Bailey stepping in for the injured Cooper Flagg. Bailey’s arrival injects bounce and two-way energy, and the stage offers a memorable opportunity for a reset to early-season narratives. Stephon Castle headlines the guard play, bringing poise and physicality to a target-score environment where strong on-ball defense and decisive drives can swing momentum in a hurry.

There’s also a plausible route for Team Melo if the night tilts toward perimeter volume. With multiple credible spacers on the wings and guards comfortable pulling up early in the clock, they can stack points in bunches while still switching across positions to blunt penetrators. If the semifinal turns into a 3-point shootout, this roster has the tools to keep pace — and then some.

The case for Team Vince: continuity, health and switchable wings

While other rosters have absorbed late injury changes, Team Vince enters with continuity and a clean bill. That matters in a one-night sprint where cohesion and role clarity often beat raw upside. Matas Buzelis is a prime swing piece: at his best, he stretches defenses with confident shooting and fluid drives, then turns around to contest at the other end with his length. The overall build screams modern basketball — big wings who can screen, slip, and rotate without sacrificing spacing.

Team Vince also has the luxury of multiple steady ballhandlers who won’t panic if the game stalls at the target line. Expect them to hunt mismatches through switches, keep the ball hopping and leverage dribble-handoff actions to manufacture clean looks. With Kyshawn George in the mix and a collective focus on two-way detail, this group feels built to win close games without a heroic shot.

The case for Team T‑Mac: experience, pace control and a flamethrower rookie

Experience is the separator here. Team T‑Mac leans on a savvy sophomore core and timely shooting from rookies who are trending upward. Kon Knueppel arrives as one of the hottest hands in the field, stretching defenses to the logo and punishing any help that’s a beat late. Around him, a sturdy supporting cast can toggle from half-court execution to up-tempo runs without coughing up possessions.

Two guards to circle: Tre Johnson and Bub Carrington, the latter stepping in as a replacement for Alex Sarr. In a target-score format, reliable decision-making at the point of attack is invaluable. This roster can dictate tempo, string together stops, and turn live-ball rebounds into quick threes. If Knueppel heats up early, Team T‑Mac has a straightforward path to the final.

Players to watch across the bracket

- Matas Buzelis (Team Vince): Wing scorer with stretch potential who can change the geometry of a defense in a hurry.
- Stephon Castle (Team Melo): Physical guard who sets the tone at the point of attack and thrives in late-clock scenarios.
- Ace Bailey (Team Melo): A high-ceiling forward replacing Cooper Flagg, primed for a spotlight night on both ends.
- Kon Knueppel (Team T‑Mac): Elite perimeter touch that can flip a game in three possessions.
- Cam Spencer and Jaylon Tyson: Floor-spacers whose gravity opens lanes and keeps defenses honest.

Also notable: Washington fans will get a busy night. Team T‑Mac features Tre Johnson and Bub Carrington, while Team Vince includes Kyshawn George.

What will decide it

With target scores in play, these games often hinge on three things: spacing, turnover margin and poise near the finish. Team Melo owns the widest margin for error if the whistle tightens and half-court execution rules. Team Vince looks best equipped to win a grind — multiple plus defenders, crisp spacing, and no glaring lineup weak points. Team T‑Mac can blow the doors off if the arc heats up early and their guards control tempo.

Call it a three-horse race with razor-thin margins. The safest pick leans toward Team Vince on the strength of continuity and two-way balance, but it wouldn’t surprise to see Team Melo or Team T‑Mac seize the moment if a hot hand emerges. Either way, the rising stars game should deliver a sprint finish worthy of the spotlight.