PL fixtures to define title momentum: Arsenal’s Brentford test and Man City’s Fulham streak headline midweek

A six-point cushion separates Arsenal from Manchester City at the top of the Premier League, with Aston Villa nine back. Across Wednesday, Feb 11, 2026, and Thursday, Feb 12, 2026 (ET), a trio of high-stakes matches could tilt the title race’s trajectory as City try to apply pressure before Arsenal face one of the division’s form teams.

What’s at stake this week

Arsenal’s advantage is significant but not decisive with 13 matches left. City play first, hosting Fulham on Wednesday. Victory would reduce the gap to three points and raise the temperature ahead of Arsenal’s trip to Brentford on Thursday. Villa, already drifting nine points off the pace, enter a must-win Wednesday to keep even an outside shot alive. The sequence and opponents matter: City get a home assignment against a struggling side before Arsenal travel to a venue where the hosts’ profile poses stylistic questions for the leaders.

Manchester City vs Fulham: dominance meets inconsistency

The statistical backdrop screams mismatch. City have beaten Fulham in each of the last 19 meetings across all competitions and scored at least two goals in each of the last 20 head-to-heads. Yet the broader form line is less emphatic. Since the turn of the year, City have won only two of seven league matches, a lull that allowed Arsenal to establish a buffer even after Sunday’s dramatic fightback at Anfield.

Fulham’s recent slide—three defeats on the bounce dropping them to mid-table—adds to the sense City can dictate. Erling Haaland’s haul of two goals in nine games is well below his usual output, but City’s attacking depth offers insurance. Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo, Omar Marmoush and Phil Foden have each provided a spark in recent weeks. A home win would not erase doubts about City’s consistency, but it would make Arsenal’s Thursday assignment feel heavier.

Brentford vs Arsenal: elite defence vs elite transitions

Arsenal travel on Thursday with the league’s best defensive record and four clean sheets in their last five matches. They have been compact, controlled and ruthless in both boxes during a surge that has made them clear front-runners. Brentford, though, present specific problems. No side has scored more counter-attacking goals this season, striking nine times on the break. That threat, amplified by quick outlets and direct running, will test Arsenal’s rest defence and midfield structure in transitions.

Set plays are another wrinkle. Brentford have conceded the fewest set-piece goals in the division, blunting an area where Arsenal often create high-quality chances. Form favors the hosts as well: only two defeats in their last 10 league matches, with 2026 scalps including Aston Villa, Everton, Newcastle United and Sunderland. European places remain in reach, and the atmosphere should match the stakes.

Aston Villa’s narrowing lane

Villa’s title credentials have faded. One win in five league games, a home defeat to Brentford and a draw against Bournemouth have left Wednesday feeling close to last-chance territory. Nine points behind Arsenal, the margin for error is razor-thin; fail to win, and the race likely reverts to two protagonists. The emphasis is on rediscovering control and clarity in both boxes, where recent margins have gone against them.

Run-in snapshot: who has the tougher pl fixtures?

A fixture difficulty model suggests Arsenal face a slightly easier remaining schedule than City over the final 13 games. Arsenal’s slate rates marginally lighter on average, with Thursday’s trip to Brentford assessed as a mid-tier test. Other notable hurdles for the leaders include away days at Tottenham and Brighton, plus meetings with Chelsea and Newcastle. Their trip to Manchester on Friday, Apr 18, 2026 (ET), is among their sternest remaining assignments.

City’s run-in edges tougher by the same measure. After Fulham on Wednesday, they host Newcastle on Saturday, Feb 21 (ET), then navigate a cluster featuring trips to Leeds, Chelsea and Bournemouth, alongside home dates with Arsenal and Aston Villa. The leaders’ head-to-head at the Etihad in mid-April looms as a potential pivot, but any model comes with caveats: momentum, injuries and match-state volatility can override pre-match ratings.

Key dates that could shape the table

- Wednesday, Feb 11 (ET): Manchester City vs Fulham — a chance to cut the deficit to three before Arsenal play.
- Thursday, Feb 12 (ET): Brentford vs Arsenal — a stylistic stress test against the league’s top counter-attackers.
- Saturday, Feb 21 (ET): Manchester City vs Newcastle United — a quick-turn home trial against an unpredictable opponent.
- Sunday, Feb 22 (ET): Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal — the north London derby with title implications.
- Friday, Apr 18 (ET): Manchester City vs Arsenal — a potential title decider at the Etihad.

By late Thursday night (ET), the table could look very different—or remarkably similar. City’s first move sets the tone. Arsenal’s response against a surging Brentford will show whether the leaders can keep opponents at arm’s length when the pressure ratchets up. The margins are tightening, the calendar is shrinking, and every point from here feels like two.