Pacers vs Houston Rockets prediction: injuries reshape a lopsided matchup

The Indiana Pacers host the Houston Rockets on Monday, February 2, 2026, at 7:00 p.m. ET in Indianapolis, and the setup is unusual: the Rockets bring a top-tier record into the building while missing a superstar scorer, and the Pacers try to stay competitive without their primary engine at point guard. The betting market still leans Houston, largely because Indiana’s margin for error is thin with key creators sidelined.

This game also comes at a moment when Houston’s identity has looked clear—physicality, size, and defensive pressure—while Indiana has had to patch together lineups and late-game offense on the fly.

Where the matchup stands

Houston enters with a strong win-loss profile, and the numbers reflect a team built to win ugly when needed: slower tempo, heavy rebounding presence, and a defense that can travel. Indiana, meanwhile, has struggled to string together full 48-minute performances, especially when the offense has to run through secondary initiators instead of its usual hub.

That contrast is why the spread has held near the mid-single digits even with Houston missing a major scorer.

Key injuries and why they matter

The headline on the Houston side is Kevin Durant being out with an ankle injury. He’s been Houston’s most reliable half-court shot-maker, and his absence typically lowers the Rockets’ ceiling on nights when the offense bogs down.

For Indiana, the bigger tactical hit is Tyrese Haliburton being out with an Achilles injury. Without him, Indiana loses its primary pace-setter, best passer, and the player most capable of creating efficient looks without turning the game into a grind.

Indiana is also without Obi Toppin (foot), trimming depth and transition punch.

Houston’s injury list includes Fred VanVleet (knee) and Steven Adams (ankle), keeping the Rockets in a rotation that emphasizes size and defense while leaning on younger guards for creation.

How the Rockets can win

Even without Durant, Houston’s most repeatable path is simple:

• Win the glass and turn second chances into steady points.

• Shrink the floor defensively and force Indiana into late-clock decisions.

• Let Alperen Sengun work as the offensive connector—post touches, short-roll reads, and kickouts—while the wings attack closeouts.

If Indiana’s offense stalls, Houston doesn’t need to score 130 to win. A controlled game in the low 100s favors the deeper, more physical roster—especially if the Rockets can keep Indiana off the free-throw line and limit runouts.

How the Pacers can keep it close

Indiana’s best chance is to flip the “grind” narrative and manufacture advantage through speed and spacing:

• Play fast early to avoid getting stuck in half-court possessions against set defense.

• Lean on Pascal Siakam as a pressure point—post mismatches, attack switches, and draw help.

• Get clean perimeter looks from role players and make Houston pay for packing the paint.

Indiana also needs a steady hand from Andrew Nembhard to reduce turnovers. Against a physical team, empty possessions are the quickest way to let the favorite turn a close game into a 10–15 point margin.

Odds snapshot and pick

Lines can move through the day, but the market has generally held around Houston by about six points with a total near the high 210s.

Prediction: Rockets win, lean Rockets to cover in the -5.5 range.

The core logic is matchup math: Indiana missing Haliburton makes it harder to generate efficient offense for long stretches, and Houston has multiple ways to score without needing a hot shooting night. The biggest risk to the pick is Houston’s half-court creation without Durant—if the Rockets go cold and Indiana hits early threes, the game can tighten quickly.

Sources consulted: NBA; Associated Press; ESPN; Sports Illustrated