EUR/USD Soars to New High as US Dollar Weakens

The Euro (EUR) has seen a significant rise, hitting new highs not seen since September 2025, currently testing the 1.1920 mark. This surge comes amid increasing uncertainties regarding US trade policies and market expectations of further easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Additionally, fears of a potential US government shutdown are contributing to a weakened US Dollar.

Factors Influencing the Euro’s Surge

Several key factors are at play in the current financial landscape:

• US Trade Policies: New tariffs targeting South Korea have raised concerns about the stability of US trade relations. President Donald Trump announced a tariff increase from 15% to 25% due to a perceived failure in adhering to previous agreements.
• Political Tensions: Ongoing political struggles within the US, particularly regarding immigration policies, could lead to a government shutdown, further pressuring the dollar.
• Federal Reserve Meeting: The Fed is currently engaged in a two-day meeting to discuss monetary policies, leaving the market uncertain about future interest rate changes.

Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators

Market sentiment remains relatively positive, which bolsters the Euro’s position. On the economic front, the upcoming US Consumer Confidence index is anticipated to influence market behavior. This index provides insights into consumer sentiments, essential for understanding US economic health.

Additionally, the US Durable Goods Orders showed a robust increase of 5.3% in November, which was significantly higher than the anticipated 0.5% growth. However, this data had minimal impact on the dollar’s movement.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is currently showing bullish momentum, targeting the resistance level around 1.1920. Technical analysis indicates the following:

• The 4-hour Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is expanding, suggesting growing bullish momentum.
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the overbought territory, indicating potential resistance ahead.
• Should the pair close above the 1.1920 mark, attention may shift towards the significant psychological level of 1.2000.
• If a downturn occurs, support is likely to be found around Monday’s low near 1.1830.

Upcoming Events

The economic calendar also highlights significant upcoming events:

• Speeches from Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, and Joachim Nagel, Bundesbank President, could impact the Euro.
• The Fed’s upcoming decision regarding the benchmark interest rate, currently held in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, is expected to remain unchanged.

In summary, the Euro’s ascent is closely tied to the weakening US Dollar, with various economic and political factors influencing market conditions. Observers should watch for key indicators such as Consumer Confidence and monetary policy announcements in the coming days, as these will help shape the Euro’s trajectory against the dollar.