Keaton Wagler’s breakout flips the Big Ten race in Illinois’ upset at Purdue — and leaves the Boilermakers waiting on Braden Smith’s ankle

Illinois didn’t just win at Purdue on Saturday; it changed the feel of the league. A freshman who hadn’t been a national headline a week ago turned Mackey Arena into his personal shooting gallery, and the Illini walked out with an 88–82 victory that reverberates beyond one night. Keaton Wagler’s career-high 46 points vaulted Illinois deeper into contention, extended a hot streak that now looks sustainable, and added a new complication for Purdue: Braden Smith’s health suddenly matters as much as the standings.

Illinois’ new weapon forces everyone to re-scout the Illini

Wagler’s eruption matters because it solves a problem Illinois has been living with since injuries began squeezing the backcourt: where does reliable shot creation come from when defenses load up? On the road, against a top opponent, the answer was blunt—Wagler created his own gravity. Purdue had to shade help toward him, chase him off screens, and still couldn’t stop the rhythm.

That changes how Illinois will be defended next week. It also changes how Illinois can play late in games: the Illini can now lean into spacing, trust the three-point volume, and punish teams that try to win with rim protection alone. The win was Illinois’ ninth straight, pushing the Illini to 17–3 overall and 8–1 in conference play, sitting a game behind Nebraska at the top of the Big Ten. Purdue fell to 17–3 and 7–2, absorbing a second consecutive loss.

What happened at Mackey, without the noise

Illinois’ upset was built on shot-making at a historic level. Wagler went 13-for-17 from the floor, hit nine threes, and lived at the line. He scored Illinois’ first 14 points and reached 24 by halftime, keeping the Illini afloat through Purdue’s early push.

Purdue got a star performance of its own from Braden Smith—27 points and 12 assists—while trying to manage a second-half high ankle sprain that noticeably affected his movement. Illinois finally created separation in the closing stretch with a burst of threes, using quick-trigger perimeter looks to turn a tight game into a two-possession finish. Illinois hit 18 threes as a team, and secondary pieces made timely shots around Wagler’s barrage. David Mirkovic added 12 points and eight rebounds while playing through an ankle issue.

The parts that will matter next week (not just what mattered Saturday)

• Illinois’ three-point volume is now a feature, not a gamble: 18 makes forces opponents to pick between protecting the paint and surviving the arc.

• Wagler isn’t a “nice story” anymore: after 46 in that building, he’ll see entirely different scouting reports and defensive coverages.

• Purdue’s margin shrinks if Smith is limited: the offense looks different when he can’t turn the corner or push pace.

• Illinois’ injury context is real, but the response is louder: a freshman stepping up this big changes rotation pressure immediately.

• The Big Ten race just got tighter at the top: one swing game can reshape seeding conversations in January.

Where to watch Illinois and Purdue next

If you missed Illinois–Purdue live, the game’s replay availability depends on your TV provider’s on-demand library and the platform tied to the network that carried it. Looking ahead, Illinois’ next listed game is Washington on Thursday, January 29, with a 8:00 PM Central tip. Purdue’s next game will be shown through its usual Big Ten broadcast rotation; check your local listings by date because start times and channels can shift late in the week.

Illinois didn’t win this with a fluky last shot. It won with a performance that forces the conference to adjust. The next question isn’t whether Keaton Wagler can score—it’s whether anyone can make Illinois uncomfortable when he’s playing with that kind of freedom, and whether Purdue can stabilize quickly if Braden Smith’s ankle needs time.