MLB 2023: Discover This Season’s Top Overachieving and Underachieving Teams
Baseball’s opening weeks have already delivered major surprises. A mix of expected winners and baffling losers has reshaped early standings.
Using preseason projections from FanGraphs, Filmogaz.com compared each club’s expected winning percentage to its current mark. The exercise highlights true overachievers and startling underperformers. This quick snapshot covers a little more than 10 percent of the season.
Standouts at the top
The Los Angeles Dodgers have exceeded projections in dramatic fashion. FanGraphs projected 98 wins. The Dodgers are on a roughly 126-win pace, which surpasses even PECOTA’s 105-win outlook.
Mookie Betts has played only eight games this season. Blake Snell and Tommy Edman have not appeared yet. Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz also have struggled so far.
The San Diego Padres began poorly, losing four of five games. They rebounded sharply after the calendar flipped to April. A sweep of the Rockies and a long hot streak followed. Their only loss in that stretch was to Paul Skenes.
Both the Dodgers and Padres are pacing well above preseason expectations. Even a five-game losing streak would likely leave them ahead of their FanGraphs projections.
Notable overachievers
The Minnesota Twins were projected for about 79 wins. They began 1-4, then won eight of nine. That run included a four-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers. The Twins boast a +17 run differential.
The Cincinnati Reds have kept a winning record despite a negative run differential. The Atlanta Braves have been the lone NL East club meeting preseason expectations. Philadelphia and New York have lagged behind.
The Braves’ run differential sits second in baseball. It trails the Dodgers by only two runs. The Arizona Diamondbacks and other clubs have also outperformed expectations early.
Hot streaks and near-misses
Four first-place teams fit this overachieving group: the Twins, Braves, Rays, and Reds. The Pittsburgh Pirates are tied with the Reds in that division.
The Cleveland Guardians sit half a game out of first. They recently won a near no-hitter against the Baltimore Orioles. The Tampa Bay Rays extended a six-game win streak, including a three-game sweep of the Yankees. The Rays’ run differential is roughly even, but recent winning has mattered most.
Teams barely above projections
Several clubs have records very close to their preseason expectations. Small results could push them either way.
The Washington Nationals have surprised offensively. They lead the majors in runs scored per game. Their pitching, however, has also allowed the most runs per game. That split has left them balanced but volatile.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have found success in Paul Skenes’ starts after his rough Opening Day. The Miami Marlins opened 5-1 against weaker opponents, then faded below .500. The Detroit Tigers moved from early underperformance to a six-game winning streak.
Modest underperformers
The New York Yankees began 7-1, but their form slowed. They went 3-8 in their next stretch. Aaron Judge and Ben Rice have been strong, while other regulars have underwhelmed.
The Chicago Cubs entered the year as NL Central favorites. They have spent much of the season in last place. Their +19 run differential and proximity to first place suggest better results could arrive soon.
More serious underperformance
The Philadelphia Phillies have struggled offensively. Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm have been poor at the plate. Jesús Luzardo carries an ERA near 8.00. The club lost each of its last three series.
The Chicago White Sox briefly looked competitive after sweeping the Toronto Blue Jays. They were later swept by Baltimore and then Tampa Bay. The White Sox now have the fewest wins in the majors.
Worst early slumps
The New York Mets have tumbled the most quickly. They lost eight straight games and slipped from a winning record in early April to division cellar by mid-month.
Forty-eight hours earlier, Boston was the season’s biggest disappointment. A win in Minnesota and a Mets loss have since flipped perceptions. Red Sox fans even chanted “sell the team” during a home loss.
Both the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners have surprised negatively. The two clubs met in last season’s ALCS, yet both have struggled now. Seattle’s run differential hints at bad luck. Toronto suffers from injuries and one of baseball’s worst run differentials.
Putting fast and slow starts in context
Small samples produce noise. A single sweep or a rough series can change a team’s standing dramatically. Filmogaz.com’s comparison to FanGraphs preseason projections helps isolate true deviations.
For more perspective on surprising teams, refer to MLB 2023: Discover This Season’s Top Overachieving and Underachieving Teams. Early patterns are clear, but the season remains long.
