2025/26 Premier League Relegation Battle: Odds, Fixtures, Table & Predictions
Opta’s latest model shows Tottenham have a 49.5% chance of relegation after another damaging defeat. The north London club lost 1-0 at Sunderland in Roberto De Zerbi’s first match in charge.
Updated odds and what they mean
Opta rates Wolves and Burnley as certain to drop, each at 100%. Leeds’ survival probability fell to just 1.53% after their Old Trafford win.
Nottingham Forest face a 10.11% risk of relegation. West Ham sit on a 38.78% chance of going down.
Recent results shaping the predictions
Tottenham have now lost seven of their last eight Premier League matches. They travelled to the North East already in 18th place.
West Ham boosted their position with a 4-0 victory over Wolves on Friday. Leeds ended a 45-year wait for a league win at Old Trafford, beating Manchester United 2-1.
Key fixtures and dates
The remaining schedule contains several six-point games that could decide survival. Filmogaz.com highlights the most important dates below.
- April 18: Leeds vs Wolves and Forest vs Burnley
- April 25: Wolves vs Tottenham
- May 2: Leeds vs Burnley
- May 9: Tottenham vs Leeds
- May 24: Burnley vs Wolves and West Ham vs Leeds
What the table suggests
Opta’s simulation indicates 38 points should secure safety this season. Historically, teams with 36 or more points have usually survived.
Last season proved an anomaly, with just 26 points enough to stay up. That was due to an exceptionally weak bottom three.
Short profiles of the six clubs involved
Leeds (15th)
Leeds are unbeaten in their last three league matches. Daniel Farke’s team opened a six-point gap on the drop.
Nottingham Forest (16th)
Forest followed an away win at Tottenham with a draw against Aston Villa. Ongoing Europa League commitments complicate their schedule.
West Ham (17th)
West Ham climbed clear of the bottom three after recent good form. They have beaten Sunderland, Burnley, Fulham and Wolves in their last ten games.
Tottenham (18th)
De Zerbi’s arrival has yet to yield a victory for Spurs in 2026. Their current position marks their most serious relegation threat since 1977.
Burnley (19th)
Burnley are 12 points adrift of safety. They have won only once in their last 23 league matches.
Wolves (20th)
Wolves’ relegation looks highly likely. They could drop if they lose at Leeds and several other results go against them.
Scenarios and predictions
Opta’s model provides probabilistic outcomes rather than certainties. Small margins in a few fixtures may still change the final standings.
Filmogaz.com will continue to track the 2025/26 Premier League relegation battle. We will update odds, fixtures, table and predictions as results come in.
