Steve Daines Withdraws as Filing Closes After Poll Showed Sizable Lead
Sen. Steve Daines withdrew his name from Montana’s U. S. Senate filing as candidate registration closed, a late change that reshapes a race in which an earlier public poll had shown him holding a sizable advantage. The Secretary of State’s filing list was updated to show Daines’ status as "withdrawn, " while the field itself has seen new movement with an independent entry backed by a former U. S. senator.
Steve Daines withdraws as filing closes
Candidate filing closed at 5 p. m., and the official filing list was updated to reflect that Sen. Steve Daines had withdrawn. The withdrawal came shortly after a morning announcement that a former university president would run as an independent and has been publicly backed by a former U. S. senator. The change in Daines’ filing status was posted on the Secretary of State’s website as "withdrawn. "
Poll data showed Daines with a sizable lead
A public poll released on February 23, 2026 showed Sen. Steve Daines leading potential rivals across several hypothetical matchups, suggesting he began the cycle in a favorable position. The survey of 607 likely voters used a multimodal approach and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3. 98 percentage points.
| Scenario | Result |
|---|---|
| Daines vs. Democratic legislator | Daines 56% — Opponent 37% |
| Daines vs. former university president as Democrat | Daines 54% — Opponent 40% |
| If former university president runs as independent and Democrats do not run | Daines 51% — Independent 42% |
| Three-way: Daines, Democrat, Independent | Daines 52% — Democrat 25% — Independent 16% |
The poll framed the independent entrant as presenting a strategic dilemma for opponents: the independent polls more strongly when viewed alone, but the projections suggested that an additional Democratic candidate could split non-Daines support and reduce the challenger coalition’s effectiveness.
How the withdrawal and independent entry change the race
The combination of an earlier poll showing comfortable Daines leads and the late withdrawal at filing creates an unsettled picture. The independent candidacy announced the same morning as the filing deadline, backed by a former U. S. senator, had already been identified as a potential disruptor in the early polling scenarios. With Daines’ name now withdrawn from the official filing list, the immediate calculus for both parties and independent campaigns will shift as ballots and campaign strategies are finalized.
Betting measures cited in the poll’s context had favored the Republican position before the withdrawal, assigning a high probability of a Republican win in the seat. Those assessments reflected the state’s recent voting patterns and the Daines polling advantage, as captured in the released survey data. How those probabilities respond to a late withdrawal and an independent candidacy backed by a prominent former senator will depend on subsequent campaign moves and voter reaction in the weeks ahead.
What to watch next
- Whether the party that had planned to contest the seat adjusts its candidate slate or strategy in response to the withdrawal and the independent bid.
- Any follow-up polling that measures voter preferences after the filing deadline and after the independent candidate’s announcement and backing.
- How campaign messaging shifts in a race where early polling showed a clear favorite but the official candidate list has changed at the close of filing.
These developments are drawn from the closing-day update to the official filing list and the publicly released poll. Details may continue to evolve as parties, candidates, and voters respond to the withdrawal and the new independent campaign.
