Gold Price Surges Past $5,296 as Iran War Risk Sends Gold Futures to Record Territory
The price of gold reached $5,296.40 per troy ounce in early trading on Monday, March 2, 2026 — up $102.20, or nearly 2%, from Friday's close of $5,194.20 — as the United States and Israel's military strikes on Iran over the weekend ignited a fresh wave of safe-haven demand that is now being reflected across gold futures markets globally.
Monday's open extends a run that has produced seven consecutive monthly gains for gold, the longest winning streak for the metal in more than a decade. Gold entered 2026 at approximately $4,300 per ounce and has now climbed more than $1,000 in under 60 days.
Gold Futures Open With Key Resistance at $5,320 and $5,426 on March 2
Gold futures on COMEX opened the Monday session at $5,231.50, with the intraday range already spanning $5,182.90 to $5,299.00. Technical indicators across daily and weekly charts are registering a strong buy signal, with the 14-day RSI at 56 — neutral but tilted bullish — and VWAP sitting near current price, pointing to broad market participation rather than a momentum-driven spike.
Key resistance on the futures chart sits at $5,320.89 and $5,426.67. Major support is established at $5,052.87, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci level on the longer-term advance from the $3,120 lows of early 2025. A weekly close above $5,320 would signal the next leg toward $5,596, the prior all-time high printed on January 29, 2026.
Gold has gained 22% since January 1, a return that surpasses most equity indices over the same span and has drawn institutional positioning from funds that typically underweight commodities. Silver is trading above $93 per ounce alongside gold's advance, and analysts note that oil's expected spike of $5 to $10 per barrel when full trading volumes resume will amplify inflationary fears that historically channel capital into hard assets.
What Is Driving the Price of Gold Above $5,000 in 2026
Three converging forces have kept gold elevated throughout the first quarter. The US-Iran conflict that escalated over the weekend is the sharpest near-term catalyst, but it landed on top of a structural setup that was already bullish.
Central banks purchased 863 tonnes of gold in 2025 and are projected to buy approximately 850 tonnes in 2026, maintaining the structural bid that has underpinned prices through multiple short-term corrections. JP Morgan's commodity desk raised its long-term gold price target to $6,300 per ounce for December 2026, citing sustained central bank and investor demand averaging roughly 585 tonnes per quarter as the primary justification.
The Federal Reserve's rate posture is the third pillar. With 98% of market participants expecting rates to hold at the March meeting and only 2% pricing in a cut, real yields remain a ceiling on gold's advance — but any softening in that posture, as the CME FedWatch tool has begun to register for the May and June meetings, removes the primary headwind that kept gold capped below $3,000 as recently as 18 months ago.
Gold Price Forecast and What Comes Next This Week
The week ahead carries two macro events that could either accelerate or stall Monday's move. The February manufacturing PMI releases later today, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book drops Wednesday alongside ADP employment data.
A manufacturing contraction reading below 50 would reinforce the safe-haven thesis and likely push gold futures toward the $5,320 resistance in Tuesday's session. A stronger-than-expected print, by contrast, might briefly reverse Monday's gains but is unlikely to break the metal below $5,052 support given the geopolitical premium now embedded in price.
Analysts project gold will reach $5,496 per troy ounce by March 7 if current momentum holds. Whether the Iran situation de-escalates diplomatically or widens into a broader regional conflict over the coming 72 hours will determine, more than any data release, whether that target is approached or exceeded before the week closes.
