Is Mexico’s Daniel Zellhuber the worst betting favorite in UFC history?

daniel zellhuber, the Mexican-born UFC lightweight, entered the Octagon at UFC Mexico City on Saturday trying to end a worrisome two-fight losing streak, only to suffer a stunning defeat that has renewed questions about his record as a betting favorite.

King Green’s late second-round TKO in Mexico City

Facing a 39-year-old King Green who had gone 2-3 in his last five UFC fights and who had gotten back into the win column in his most recent appearance, zellhuber closed as a -410 betting favorite for the matchup in Mexico City. Green delivered a devastating TKO late into the second round, leaving zellhuber stunned and turning what looked like an easy pick into an upset finish captured in highlights of the event.

Daniel Zellhuber’s recent pattern of heavy-favorite losses

The Mexico City loss was not an isolated case. A March 1, 2026 post compiling recent results listed zellhuber’s losses when he entered as heavy favorites: a -430 upset, a -900 upset and the -410 loss in Mexico City. That post included the line, "A run we may never see again, " underscoring how unusual the sequence has become.

Early shock: 2022 debut defeat and the rebound that followed

Back in 2022, zellhuber dropped a shocking decision loss to UFC lightweight Trey Odgen while he was undefeated and making his UFC debut. He had closed that night as a -430 betting favorite but was out-pointed by Ogden and suffered the first loss of his pro MMA career. After that setback, zellhuber would go on to win his next three UFC fights.

July 2025 decision loss to 39-year-old Michael Johnson

Zellhuber’s last outing before Mexico City was a decision loss to 39-year-old veteran Michael Johnson in July 2025. Entering that fight as a -900 favorite, zellhuber landed 52 total significant strikes to Johnson’s 81, but still came up short on the judges’ cards in what added to concerns about his record when heavily favored.

Talent versus betting reliability and where zellhuber stands now

Despite the string of upsets, the available coverage describes zellhuber as a talented fighter and one of the toughest guys outside of the lightweight top 15. For bettors and matchmakers, however, the combination of his striking tools, long reach and repeated heavy-favorite losses — including losses listed as a -430 favorite against Trey Ogden, a -900 favorite against Michael Johnson, and a -410 favorite against Bobby Green — has created a troubling pattern for those wagering on his fights.

For fans and bettors, the immediate takeaway may differ, but the facts in the ring are clear: zellhuber has now suffered multiple high-odds defeats, including the most recent TKO by King Green in Mexico City, and those results have reshaped how his fights are being viewed at the betting window.