Wofford Basketball Favored as Citadel Closes Regular Season at Jerry Richardson Indoor Stadium
The Citadel Bulldogs travel to Jerry Richardson Indoor Stadium on Feb. 28 for their regular-season finale, and wofford basketball enters the matchup as a clear betting favorite. Market odds and predictive models give Wofford a strong edge, a dynamic that matters for seeding and late-season momentum in the conference.
Wofford Basketball edge: turnover discipline and assist-to-turnover balance
Two efficiency measures underpin Wofford’s standing: the Terriers have averaged just 9. 1 turnovers per game (274 turnovers over 30 games) this season, tied for seventh best nationally among Division I teams, and they post a 1. 5 assist-to-turnover ratio (1, 401 assists to 958 turnovers) since the start of the 2023–24 season. Those figures point to an offense that values ball control and productive passing, traits that feed into the betting market’s confidence.
For wofford basketball, that low turnover rate and high assist production are reflected directly in model projections and the spread: a winning-team model gives Wofford a 77. 7% chance to win, while a spread model puts the probability of Wofford covering the posted -11. 5 figure at 61. 9%.
Jerry Richardson Indoor Stadium: odds, tip time and model projections
The game is scheduled for Feb. 28 with tip-off at 2: 00 pm in Spartanburg, SC. The betting line lists Wofford as an 11. 5-point favorite and sets the over/under at 148. 5 points. Those market numbers mirror the outputs of simulation-based forecasting: the predictive framework cited uses game simulations, player injuries, key individual performances and recent matchups to arrive at its percentages, which in turn appear to have shaped the spread.
Betting platforms display both the projected win probability and the cover likelihood, signaling how the market has priced the matchup ahead of the regular-season close.
Citadel shooting struggles and defensive marks that influence the matchup
The Citadel enters the game with offensive metrics that help explain the gap: the Bulldogs are shooting 41% from the field this season (725 makes on 1, 754 attempts), a mark that ranks among the lower tiers nationally against a Division I average of 45%. Free-throw activity is also muted, with 16. 5 attempts per game — one of the lower rates across Division I.
Defensively, The Citadel posted 1. 21 points per shot last season (2, 212 points on 1, 828 shots), a figure that ranked fourth best among Southern Conference teams and below the league average of 1. 22, indicating the Bulldogs can be stingy on a per-shot basis when their defense is working.
What makes this notable is the juxtaposition: Wofford’s low-turnover, high-assist approach tends to shorten defensive possessions and limit opponent opportunities, while The Citadel’s offensive efficiency deficits and modest free-throw volume create fewer high-value scoring chances. That combination has been priced into both the spread and the totals.
With the regular season concluding, the tangible implications are immediate: an outright win or a cover affects postseason seeding and the narratives around both programs heading into conference tournament play. Bettors and team strategists alike will watch whether Wofford’s ball control can blunt The Citadel’s defensive strengths and whether the Bulldogs can improve shooting efficiency in a single, decisive afternoon at Jerry Richardson Indoor Stadium.
