Grok AI $40K Bitcoin Price Forecast Is Widely Viewed as Too Bearish
Grok’s projection that the bitcoin price could fall as low as $40, 000 has reintroduced downside scenarios even as many market participants see the worst behind them. The AI’s forecast sits well below most analyst bottoms and outlines both tail risks and bull cases that stretch into six figures.
How Grok constructs its bitcoin price projections
The model, described in the analysis as an Elon Musk AI, pulls real-time data from X, tracking sentiment shifts, viral trends and crowd psychology. It runs thousands of scenario simulations that weigh ETF flows, post-halving supply dynamics and Fed policy against each other. That approach lets Grok react quickly to momentum shifts but can also overweight fear during selloffs.
Grok's scenario range: $40, 000 tail risk to $200, 000–$300, 000 bulls
Grok’s forecast spans a wide range. Its base case sits between $75, 000 and $150, 000; bull scenarios are described as reaching $200, 000 to $300, 000 by late 2026. The same coverage also notes a separate upside figure of as much as $250, 000 if institutional adoption accelerates. The model treats a $40, 000 outcome as a tail risk rather than its base expectation, but it does not dismiss that possibility.
Bitcoin Price history and recent moves cited by Grok
The analysis points to recent volatility: Bitcoin crashed to nearly $60, 000 in early February before bouncing back to around $67, 000. Grok highlights that a drop to $40, 000 would represent a 68% decline from Bitcoin's October 2025 peak of $126, 000 — a drawdown comparable to the 2018 and 2022 crashes. Those earlier collapses followed exchange collapses, regulatory crackdowns and market panic; the coverage notes this cycle has not featured any of those events.
How Grok’s view compares with analysts and other AI models
Most analysts cluster bottom estimates between $60, 000 and $75, 000, placing Grok’s $40, 000 floor about 33% to 45% below the consensus. Carol Alexander, professor of finance at the University of Sussex, expects Bitcoin to trade in a "high-volatility range" of $75, 000 to $150, 000 with a center of gravity around $110, 000. Standard Chartered has trimmed targets twice since December 2025 and now warns of a $50, 000 bottom before a recovery to $100, 000 by year-end.
Other AI models land closer to consensus: ChatGPT projects a $40, 000 to $75, 000 bottom range if a prolonged crypto winter persists but weights its base case between $75, 000 and $110, 000. Claude projects $70, 000 to $120, 000 in a moderate scenario, with bear cases bottoming around $30, 000 to $50, 000 only under severe macro stress. Taken together, these comparisons make Grok the most bearish among the major forecasters noted.
Drivers Grok says would lift or sink prices and the listed downside triggers
For the bull case, Grok points to three specific drivers: monthly ETF inflows staying above $3 billion, at least two Fed rate cuts, and continued corporate treasury adoption following Strategy's playbook. A major catalyst such as a G7 nation adding Bitcoin to reserves would accelerate that timeline.
For the $40, 000 bear case, Grok draws on X sentiment data and technical charts circulating on the platform that project $40, 000 as the cycle bottom in 2026. It lays out a scenario in which ETF outflows accelerate, the Fed stays hawkish through 2026, and a contagion event hits; under those conditions Grok sees $40, 000 as possible. The original coverage lists four key factors that could ignite a decline toward $40, 000 and names the first as hawkish Fed policy extending through 2026; the remaining factors are unclear in the provided context.
Related market notes and an analyst mention
The material also notes that an analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 has recently named his top 10 AI stocks. That mention appears alongside the wider discussion of model forecasts and analyst bottoms, underscoring how AI-driven views are reshaping investment conversations.
