Nvda Earnings Date Set for Feb. 25 as Morgan Stanley Sees Upside from Vera Rubin Ramp
The nvda earnings date is scheduled for February 25, when Nvidia will release its fourth-quarter results. The timing matters because analysts at Morgan Stanley expect upside to guidance tied to a faster ramp of the Vera Rubin platform and continued strong demand for AI compute.
Nvda Earnings Date: Development details
Nvidia will report Q4 results on February 25. Public guidance and analyst projections in the run-up to the report include an expected revenue figure of $65. 0 billion, plus or minus 2%, GAAP gross margins projected near 74. 8% plus or minus 0. 5%, and GAAP operating expenses of approximately $6. 7 billion. Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore and his team express high confidence in a strong quarter and a solid full-year outlook.
Moore points to recent company performance that showed revenues roughly $3 billion above guidance in the prior quarter and a company guidance that targeted $8 billion of sequential revenue growth. Those results produced what analysts called a $3 billion upside and about $10 billion in sequential revenue growth compared with prior periods. Morgan Stanley judges that there is potential for $2 billion or more of upside to a $64 billion guidance figure and views a consensus revenue estimate of $72 billion as defensible.
Context and escalation
Market sentiment has shifted since Nvidia last reported, when a very strong quarter produced a muted or negative stock-market reaction. On the day of that previous earnings release the stock closed at $186. 52 and fell to $180. 64 the following day; the company had previously peaked at a closing price of $207. 04 on October 29 before sliding, and more recently closed at $171. 88 on February 5.
Analysts point to two forces shaping investor reactions. First, concerns about an AI-related valuation cycle weighed on the share price, though those fears are easing. Second, supply-side dynamics — including intensifying shortages in DRAM, NAND, HDD, optical components, CPUs and power — could become bottlenecks that would actually make GPU demand and supply more visible. At the same time, demand for all forms of AI compute, including trailing-edge systems, remains robust, supporting the case for continued revenue growth.
What makes this notable is that the company has delivered measurable upside even as the market has wrestled with short-term valuation and supply questions; the contrast underscores how operational momentum can outpace immediate investor sentiment.
Immediate impact
Investors, analysts and corporate supply chains have tangible stakes in the upcoming release. Morgan Stanley’s reset of its outlook and vocal confidence from Joseph Moore have translated into explicit revenue scenarios — the firm anticipates more than $2 billion of upside potential versus a $64 billion reference point and views a $72 billion consensus as realistic. For traders, the prior quarter’s post-earnings price behavior — a $5. 88 decline between the close on the earnings day and the next session — remains a cautionary data point.
On the operational side, the pace at which Vera Rubin inventory becomes available could materially affect shipment volumes and revenue recognition. Moore expects the Vera Rubin ramp to be roughly on time, with the possibility of an even steeper supply ramp than initially modeled, a shift he attributes to customers moving expectations from the Blackwell platform to Rubin in the second half of the year more rapidly than previously forecast.
Forward outlook
The immediate milestone is the February 25 earnings release. Confirmed signals to watch in that report include whether revenue beats or misses the $65. 0 billion ±2% bracket, how GAAP gross margins compare with the 74. 8% ±0. 5% projection, and whether operating expenses remain near the roughly $6. 7 billion estimate. Morgan Stanley’s near-term thesis hinges on Rubin supply and continued AI compute demand translating into measurable upside versus guidance.
Beyond the release date, the firm’s expectation of a steeper-than-expected Rubin ramp and the persistence of broad AI-related demand form the core, evidence-based path that could lift near-term revenue outlooks. The company’s prior quarter performance — roughly $3 billion above guidance and an $8 billion sequential growth target — provides the tangible baseline investors will use to assess the credibility of any new upside claims in the Feb. 25 report.
