Meli Stock: MercadoLibre Earnings Preview and Margin Risk for 2026
MercadoLibre will report results tomorrow after market close, and meli stock moves are likely to hinge on fresh revenue and margin signals. Traders will compare this quarter’s topline outlook with the company’s recent prints — including a strong Q4 showing and signs of margin compression — to gauge whether growth can translate into sustainable profitability.
Meli Stock: What to Watch
The market is looking for continued top-line strength. Expectations for the quarter call for revenue growth near 40. 1% year on year, an acceleration from a prior same-quarter increase of 37. 4%. In the earlier quarter the company posted revenues of $7. 41 billion, up 39. 5% year on year, while a later Q4 CY2025 release showed sales of $8. 76 billion, up 44. 6% year on year. Investors will also be watching per-share profit metrics: a GAAP profit of $11. 03 per share in the latest quarter landed about 3. 6% below consensus estimates in that report. Given that analysts have generally reconfirmed their estimates in recent weeks, the core question for meli stock is whether the company can sustain the revenue trajectory while signaling improving unit economics.
Revenue and Unique-Buyer Trends
Recent results point to healthy demand and improving buyer trends. The company added 16 million unique active buyers in Q4, translating to 23. 9% year-on-year growth in that metric. That follows a period when unique active buyers had declined on an annual basis, with a prior two-year trend showing a 15% annual decline to 83 million in the latest quarter before the Q4 gain. Average revenue per user remains a critical gauge: ARPU was $105. 53 in the quarter, up 16. 7% year on year, and ARPU growth averaged roughly 107% over the prior two years. Those moves helped deliver strong revenue expansion — including 40% annualized growth over a recent three-year window and a 37% surge in the first nine months of 2025 — but the sustainability of monetization will matter for valuation going forward.
Margins and 2026 Outlook
Margins are the principal near-term risk heading into 2026. Management choices in 2025 emphasized relevance and share gains over immediate profitability: the company lowered its free-shipping threshold in Brazil from 79 reais to 19 reais, absorbed higher logistics costs, and leaned into promotions to counter aggressive competitors. Those tactics supported volume and engagement, but operating margin compressed to 9. 8% in the third quarter of 2025 from 10. 5% a year earlier. If subsidized shipping and heavy promotions become the baseline expectation, the marketplace model could struggle to convert scale into operating leverage. The forward look is conditional and concrete: if unit economics and margins show signs of stabilization or improvement, the investment thesis strengthens; if margins remain compressed or trend lower, valuation assumptions may need reassessment.
- Key takeaways: Revenue momentum is strong, buyer growth is accelerating after recent weakness, and ARPU continues to rise.
- Margins are under pressure after strategic spending to defend market share; operating margin compression is the central 2026 risk.
- Tomorrow’s results will be judged on whether growth can begin to translate into durable margin improvement.
Market positioning heading into the print reflects a mixed backdrop: online marketplace stocks have been under pressure recently, and analysts’ average price targets sit materially above recent reference share levels, creating a focus on execution and margin recovery in the coming quarters. The immediate post-release reaction to the most recent quarterly report moved the share price in short windows, underscoring how sensitive meli stock remains to both top-line beats and margin signals.
