Kyle Larson Loses Favorite Tag as Denny Hamlin Moves Ahead in 2026 Odds
kyle larson is no longer the odds-on favorite for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship after DraftKings Sportsbook listed Denny Hamlin at +370 and Larson at +400. The change arrived in the wake of the Daytona 500 — where Larson finished 16th and Hamlin 31st — and comes as NASCAR returns to a 10-race Chase format that places a heavier emphasis on season-long points.
Kyle Larson slips to second in early odds
Bookmakers shifted the front-runner label even though Larson remains close to the provisional playoff line. Larson is tied for 14th in the standings and sits three points above the cutoff, while Hamlin occupies 33rd and is 19 points below the provisional playoff cut line that sits between 16th-place Noah Gragson and 17th-place Michael McDowell. The odds move is notable because it happened immediately after a superspeedway race — the Daytona 500 — where single-race results are often poor predictors of a full season.
Points, finishes and the return of the Chase
The 2026 season opened under NASCAR’s revived 10-race Chase postseason format, a system the sport last used in the 2004–2013 era. The format change matters for title betting and team strategy: race winners now receive 55 points, a 15-point increase from the previous system, and the Chase begins with a seeded points reset. The regular-season champion will start the Chase at 2, 100 points, the second seed at 2, 075 and the third at 2, 065, with a five-point drop for each seed after that.
Hamlin’s timeline and who should worry
Denny Hamlin has said drivers will begin to worry about points after roughly five to six races, telling listeners, "Five to six races in, five or six in. I think that’s probably the right number. " Hamlin’s own early deficit sits alongside peers who started slowly: Chase Briscoe (2 points), Hamlin (8 points) and Christopher Bell (9 points) combined have fewer points than Cody Ware, who holds 20 points in 21st place. Team leaders and drivers face a critical stretch that includes EchoPark Speedway, COTA, Phoenix Raceway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Darlington Raceway.
The shift away from the win-and-in system that governed 2014–2025 followed the controversial finish at Phoenix Raceway last season, when Larson was crowned champion over Hamlin. Even with that history, the new format rewards consistent high finishes: Hamlin has predicted the champion will finish in the top three of the regular season, saying, "Whoever the champion is is going to finish in the top 3 of the regular season. The champion will be in the top 3. " That structure gives the regular-season leaders a measurable head start entering the 10-race Chase.
kyle larson narrowly avoids the provisional cutoff now, but the standings remain fluid; three of the regular season’s remaining 24 races are superspeedways, and the next event on the schedule is the race at EchoPark Speedway (formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway). Teams will turn to those upcoming races and the run of events through COTA, Phoenix, Las Vegas and Darlington to try to climb the standings before the Chase seeding locks in.
