Noaa Weather spring outlook: noaa weather signals weakening La Niña shift
An outlook released Thursday finds the ongoing La Niña beginning to weaken and likely moving to a neutral phase through the spring, a change poised to alter seasonal weather patterns across the contiguous United States. The noaa weather context in the outlook outlines warmer tendencies for much of the country and a continued contrast between a wetter East and a drier West in the months ahead.
Noaa Weather, noaa weather and La Niña
The central news hook is that La Niña shows signs of weakening, with a likely neutral phase through spring. That change matters because it shifts the wintertime patterns that have been in place and underpins the month-by-month temperature outlook described in the release on Thursday.
March: cooler north, warmer south
For March, the outlook projects that cold conditions will remain across the northern portion of the country. The Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic, Northeast and the northernmost portions of the Northern Plains are expected to see below-average temperatures for March. In contrast, the South, Central U. S. and most of the West are expected to be above average, meaning the Northeast will likely have to wait for more consistent warmth through March.
April and May: warming expands, New England lags
April is forecast to show a notable shift. While below-average temperatures are still expected in parts of the Upper Midwest and extend into portions of the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, above-average temperatures are expected across the entire Northeast. The southern half of the country is projected to remain above average, with the highest odds for warm conditions stretching from the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains and the Southeast. May continues the warming trend across much of the Lower 48, with the largest warm anomalies centered on the West and much of the Rockies. The East is expected to be only slightly above average, and the only area leaning toward below-average temperatures is New England (along with Michigan's Upper Peninsula).
Precipitation outlook and drought implications
Precipitation expectations remain broadly consistent through the spring: wetter across the East and drier across the West. A wetter signal for the East would be welcome where an unexpected amount of the region is currently coping with drought, though the outlook notes that verification will be required. The West has seen a brief pivot toward wetter or milder conditions in recent weeks, but the outlook indicates a return toward the drier, milder pattern that dominated much of the winter.
Looking ahead, this seasonal forecast ties directly to the evolution from La Niña toward neutral. If the neutral phase holds through spring, the month-by-month temperature and precipitation patterns described in the outlook are the observable scenarios to monitor. Officials and residents tracking drought relief or seasonal warm-ups should watch verification of the wetter East and continued warming in the West and Rockies as the primary indicators that the forecast is materializing.
