AJ Dybantsa Is Rewriting History at BYU — and the 2026 NBA Draft Is Watching Closely
AJ Dybantsa is doing something college basketball hasn't seen in decades: a true freshman taking over a Power Four conference, leading the nation in scoring, breaking all-time program records, and positioning himself as the defining prospect of the 2026 NBA Draft class. With the draft lottery months away and his collegiate résumé expanding weekly, the question is no longer if he goes in the top two — it's who gets lucky enough to draft him.
A Freshman Season for the Record Books
Just days ago, on February 18 ET, Dybantsa dropped 35 points on 13-of-28 shooting in a road loss at No. 4 Arizona — a performance that etched his name into BYU history permanently. That outing pushed him past Danny Ainge's single-season freshman scoring record at BYU, a mark that had stood since 1978. He currently sits at 644 points for the season.
The numbers across the board are staggering for a 19-year-old. The 6-foot-9, 210-pound small forward from Brockton, Massachusetts, is the nation's leading scorer at approximately 24.4 points per game. He has scored in double figures in every single game of his collegiate career, topped 30 points six times, and posted the first freshman triple-double in program history — 33 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists against Eastern Washington. He also holds BYU freshman records in 20-point games, 30-point games, free throws made, and free throws attempted. He is tied for the most 35-point games by a freshman in NCAA history.
Awards recognition has piled up accordingly. Dybantsa earned five Big 12 Newcomer of the Week citations, the Naismith Player of the Week honor, the USBWA Oscar Robertson High-Major Player of the Month for December, and spots on both the Wooden Award Late Midseason Top 20 Watch List and the Naismith Trophy Late-Season Team.
Where Mock Drafts Have Him Landing
The 2026 NBA Draft is shaping up as a two-horse race at the very top, and Dybantsa is one of the two horses. The other is Kansas freshman guard Darryn Peterson, with Duke forward Cameron Boozer rounding out what evaluators widely regard as the three locked-in lottery anchors of the class.
Mock draft projections for Dybantsa have ranged from first to second overall, depending on the publication and the week. ESPN's Jeremy Woo placed Peterson at No. 1 to the Indiana Pacers and Dybantsa at No. 2 to the Sacramento Kings in a recent update. Tankathon has Dybantsa going second to the Atlanta Hawks. Other outlets have projected him to the Utah Jazz at No. 2, a fit that carries obvious narrative appeal given his time in the state.
The Atlanta Hawks scenario has gained traction in recent weeks after it emerged that they hold the New Orleans Pelicans' unprotected 2026 first-round pick — a pick that could land at No. 1 given New Orleans currently holds the worst record in the league. If the ping-pong balls bounce Atlanta's way, Dybantsa would slot into a frontcourt alongside Jalen Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher.
The Prospect Profile That Has Scouts Buzzing
Evaluators describe Dybantsa in the mold of Tracy McGrady or Paul George — a long, explosive wing who can create his own shot from anywhere on the floor, initiate offense as a primary ball-handler, and guard multiple positions at the NBA level. His combination of positional size, first-step quickness, and instinctive passing feels rare at any age, let alone 19.
The primary area scouts flag is shot selection and long-term shooting consistency. His jump shot is regarded as functional, but the question of whether the mechanics hold up against NBA-level contests remains open. The half-court game and decision-making under defensive pressure are also areas that continue to develop — normal caveats for a player still months away from his sophomore year of college.
The Peterson Debate and What Separates the Two
While Peterson boasts arguably the highest scoring efficiency in college basketball this season — averaging 24.5 points per game on 54.9% from the field and 37.2% from three through 24 games — he has dealt with injuries and availability questions that complicate his No. 1 case from an NBA front-office perspective. Medicals and long-term durability become part of the conversation at the very top of a draft.
Dybantsa, by contrast, has been a model of consistency and availability. His physical tools are broader and his two-way projection is arguably safer. Most boards treat him as the franchise wing archetype the modern NBA covets above all else — a player who can score from anywhere, pass in motion, and defend at a high level as he matures.
What Comes Next
No. 23 BYU hosted No. 6 Iowa State on Saturday night, February 21 ET. With five games left in the regular season, the Cougars could realistically close at 24 wins. Dybantsa's draft stock has been climbing with every performance regardless of team results, and March Madness — should BYU earn a bid projected around a 6-seed by bracketologist Joe Lunardi — will offer the brightest stage yet.
By June, when NBA commissioner Adam Silver announces the first pick, the basketball world will know exactly what Dybantsa is. Everything he's done so far suggests the answer will be a franchise cornerstone.
