Anthony Hernandez favored as Strickland returns in Houston main event

Emerson Raymont

Published: February 21, 2026 10:17 PM ET

Anthony Hernandez favored as Strickland returns in Houston main event

anthony hernandez enters the middleweight main event as the betting favorite while former champion Sean Strickland makes his return in a five-round headliner at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas — a showdown that carries potential title implications and closes the main card that began at 8 p. m. ET.

Anthony Hernandez the betting favorite

Hernandez (15-2) is listed as the -270 favorite for the matchup, with Strickland shown at +220 on the latest odds. The bout pairs the No. 4 contender Anthony Hernandez against No. 3 Sean Strickland as part of a six-fight main card billed for UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez on February 21 (Fight Night 267).

Strickland's return and recent form

Strickland (29-7), 34, returns after more than a year out of the cage. He last competed in early February 2025, losing to then-champion Dricus du Plessis in a failed bid to regain the UFC middleweight title. Strickland has won four of his past six bouts and earned the belt by upsetting Israel Adesanya in 2023; six of his seven most recent UFC wins have come by decision.

Hernandez's surge and finishing résumé

Hernandez (15-2, 1 NC), 32 and a California native, has ridden a strong run since 2021, winning eight consecutive UFC bouts and recording six finishes. His recent highlights include bonus-winning stoppages of Roman Dolidze, Michel Pereira and Roman Kopylov. The matchup is promoted as a five-round main event with potential title contention on the line.

Co-main, undercard results and notable finishes

The co-main event matched welterweights Geoff Neal (16-7) and Uros Medic (12-3). Despite losing three of his last four bouts, Neal carried -198 odds into the fight as an Austin native looking to win in his home state. The card opened with a preliminary slate at 5 p. m. ET on Paramount+ and the main card began live at 8 p. m. ET on Paramount+ for subscribers.

Undercard outcomes published in the event's live results included:

Serghei Spivac defeated Ante Delija by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28).
Jacobe Smith defeated Josiah Harrell by knockout (elbows and punches) at 3: 01 of Round 1.
Michel Pereira defeated Zachary Reese by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28).
Carlos Leal defeated Chidi Njokuani by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28).
Alibi Idiris defeated Ode Osbourne by unanimous decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27).
Aldin Coria defeated Luis Gurule by unanimous decision (30-27 all).
Jocelyne Edwards defeated Nora Cornolle by submission (rear-naked choke) at 2: 44 of Round 2.
Punahele Soriano defeated Ramiz Brahimaj by split decision (29-28 all).
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani defeated Phil Rowe by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28).
Jordan Leavitt defeated Yadier de Valle by unanimous decision (29-28 all).

Model projections and betting context

A probabilistic MMA model used to make UFC Fight Night projections runs 10, 000 simulations for every fight and plays them out round-by-round with dynamic win probability, round-by-round finish calculations including KO/submission timing, and accumulating damage factors. The model backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6. 1% ROI. It also hit Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324.

That model labeled Over 1. 5 rounds in the co-main Neal vs. Medic as a top pick, offering a +4. 2% edge and returning +130. The model's analyst said defensive metrics and pacing profiles suggest measured early exchanges that boost the chance the fight extends. The model is also targeting several underdogs and lists a best bet that returns over +500.

The five-round Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez middleweight main event was scheduled to close the main card that began at 8 p. m. ET, with preliminary action that started at 5 p. m. ET on Paramount+ earlier in the evening.