Anthony Hernandez vs. Sean Strickland: UFC Houston live results and odds

anthony hernandez meets former UFC middleweight champion Sean Strickland in a five-round main event at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. The card returns after a week off, with preliminary action starting at 5 p. m. ET and the six-fight main card beginning live at 8 p. m. ET; the main card is free for all subscribers.

Anthony Hernandez recent run

Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez enters the main event with a record of 15-2, 1 NC and a No. 4 ranking. The 32-year-old California native has been on a torrid pace since 2021, winning eight consecutive UFC bouts and recording six finishes. His finishing highlights include bonus-winning stoppages of Roman Dolidze, Michel Pereira and Roman Kopylov.

Sean Strickland comeback details

Sean Strickland, 29-7 and No. 3 in the division, makes his return after more than a year out of the cage. The 34-year-old former UFC middleweight champion last competed in early February 2025, losing a lackluster effort to then-champion Dricus du Plessis in a failed bid to regain his UFC middleweight title. Strickland has won four of his past six bouts and captured the belt with an upset of Israel Adesanya in 2023. Six of his seven most recent UFC wins have come by decision.

Odds and model projections

Hernandez is listed as the favorite at -270 while Strickland is the +220 underdog on the main event line. A predictive model used for the card runs 10, 000 simulations for every fight, playing out each contest round-by-round and accounting for dynamic win probability, round-by-round finish calculations with KO/submission timing, accumulating damage factors that increase finish likelihood in later rounds and fighter-specific finishing tendencies such as power punchers versus grapplers versus decision fighters. The model was backtested against more than 500 fights from 2023-25 and showed more than 18 units of profit — a 6. 1% ROI.

The model recorded an early success in the current era, hitting Justin Gaethe to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324. One of the model's top UFC Fight Night picks for this card is backing Over 1. 5 rounds (+4. 2% edge) in the co-main event of Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic, which returns +130. "The defensive metrics and pacing profiles suggest exchanges will be more measured early which increases the chance the fight extends, " Mike McClure said. The model is also targeting several underdogs and lists a best bet that returns over +500.

Co-main and other key matchups

The co-main event features welterweights Geoff Neal (16-7) and Uros Medic (12-3). Despite losing three of his last four bouts, Geoff Neal enters as the -192 favorite as the Austin native looks to win in his home state. The card also includes a lone heavyweight bout between Serghei Spivac and Ante Delija, listed at -118.

Full card and early results

The evening's full slate on the fight card reads as follows: Middleweight: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez; Featherweight: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa; Heavyweight: Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija; Welterweight: Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell; Middleweight: Zachary Reese vs. Michel Pereira; Welterweight: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal; Flyweight: Ode Osbourne vs. Alibi Idiris; Women's bantamweight: Nora Cornolle vs. Joselyne Edwards; Welterweight: Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Punahele Soriano; Welterweight: Phil Rowe vs. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani.

Early card results include: Featherweight Jordan Leavitt def. Yadier de Valle unanimous decision (29-28 All) and Women's flyweight Carli Judice def. Juliana Miller unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27).

Follow live round-by-round scoring and highlights from the Toyota Center as the main card unfolds. anthony hernandez remains a central figure on the card, with title implications and a top-five matchup defining the night.

Unclear in the provided context: whether additional broadcast details beyond start times and subscriber access affect viewership arrangements.

For now, the sequence is set: prelims at 5 p. m. ET, the six-fight main card at 8 p. m. ET, a five-round main event pitting Sean Strickland against Anthony Hernandez and a co-main featuring Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic.