Cnn: Cracks in Trump’s ‘ruthless’ midterms strategy as approval ratings and turnout signals wobble

data and recent campaign developments show the president’s midterms playbook is under pressure: his approval has dipped to 41% and party operatives are confronting weak economic confidence and a string of Democratic special-election gains that threaten Republican control.

data guru raises alarm as approval bottoms out in multiple polls

Internal and public polling have put fresh scrutiny on the president’s standing. A prominent data analyst warned that the president’s approval appears to be at its weakest point in years, with multiple national surveys registering record lows for the second term. One tracking poll showed the president nearly 20 points underwater, while another tracking measure put his net approval roughly 23 points negative. Analysts noted that at the corresponding moment in another recent presidency, the average approval was several points higher.

That erosion is not abstract: a national survey found widespread disapproval of immigration enforcement efforts tied to the administration, with roughly six in 10 Americans holding an unfavorable view of the agency central to deportation operations. More than half of respondents in that survey said the president had gone too far on deportations and on restricting legal immigration. On the economy, separate tracking data placed the president deeply negative on net approval, reflecting persistent voter worries about inflation, housing costs and consumer prices outpacing wages.

Midterms strategy strained as turnout pillars show cracks

The coalition that delivered the White House victory relied on several pillars — a relentless economic message, a hard-line immigration stance, amplification by influential podcasters, and a surge of low-propensity voters. Campaign and party operatives are now confronting signs that each pillar is fraying. Public confidence in the economy remains weak, and some of the demographic groups that surged for the president in the prior election are showing signs of detachment or active opposition.

Party strategists are sharply focused on turnout: a string of special election results yielded nine seat flips in districts the president previously carried, shaking assumptions of secure majorities. That trend, coupled with slipping approval and doubts about whether the low-propensity voters will reappear in midterms, has pushed senior advisers and lawmakers to re-evaluate tactics.

Advisers mobilize and the campaign shifts into high gear

In response to the mounting warnings, the president has launched a campaign-style blitz, traveling with his vice president to deliver economic speeches and dispatching Cabinet officials to emphasize administration achievements. He has framed the midterms as urgent, warning supporters that a Democratic comeback could expose him to further impeachment risk and pressing the point that winning both chambers matters.

Senior staff and seasoned operatives have been enlisted to stress-test the strategy. The chief of staff and her deputy, along with the campaign’s former co-manager and its lead pollster, met with other advisers at a private members’ club to discuss next steps. One senior adviser outlined a plan to "put [the president] on the ballot, " arguing the campaign must treat the midterms as a presidential-style turnout effort to re-mobilize the low-propensity voters who were decisive last time.

Yet voices in the political analysis community caution that those same groups may now be motivated to vote against the president’s party, underscoring the uncertainty Republicans face as they attempt to defend fragile margins in both chambers. With approval at roughly 41% and key signals pointing in the wrong direction, the coming months will test whether the campaign’s aggressive recalibration can translate into the turnout needed to hold ground in the midterms.