Nacional vs Porto: Preview, team news and prediction
Nacional host table-toppers Porto on Sunday, Feb. 15, 2026, with kickoff at 10: 30 AM ET in a match that could define momentum for both sides as the title race enters its decisive phase. Porto arrive four points clear but have shown signs of a wobble; Nacional need a positive result at home to ease relegation fears.
Form, stakes and head-to-head
For much of the campaign, Porto have combined a prolific attack with a near-impenetrable defence. The leaders have collected an impressive haul from the opening fixtures, sitting atop the table thanks to a record built on consistent wins and the league’s best defensive return. Their away form has been particularly strong this season, with victories on the road giving the squad added confidence heading into Madeira.
Nacional’s season has been patchier. The hosts have struggled for consistency in the league, picking up only two wins in their last 13 outings, though a recent unbeaten run at home (two wins, two draws) hints at a side finding better footing on its own turf. Nacional sit 13th and hold a slim cushion above the relegation playoff zone, so securing points here would be crucial to creating breathing space in the table.
Historically this fixture favours Porto: the visitors have dominated recent meetings and took the reverse league fixture earlier in the season. That said, a previous visit to Madeira did end in defeat for Porto not too long ago, a reminder that nothing is guaranteed on the island.
Injury watch and likely lineups
Nacional face selection headaches. Left-back Jose Gomes is a doubt after being forced off in the last match, while midfielder Leo Santos is suspended after picking up his fifth booking of the campaign. Long-term absentees include Ivanildo Fernandes and Ulisses, with Filipe Soares still sidelined and Lenny Vallier plus Joao Aurelio possibly missing again. Manager Tiago Margarido will need to balance caution with urgency given the tightness of the table around his side.
Porto also have notable absences to manage. Francisco Moura is suspended, and Samu Omorodion is out with a knee problem, leaving Deniz Gul the expected striking option in the absence of Luuk de Jong, who is ruled out for the season. Defensive fitness is another concern for the visitors: Jakub Kiwior and Martim Fernandes are doubtful after being substituted in the last match, and Nehuen Perez remains sidelined long-term with an Achilles issue. Those missing pieces could force tactical tweaks, but the squad’s depth has carried Porto through similar tests this season.
Prediction
This has the feel of a tight, low-scoring contest. Porto’s defensive record and superior away form give them the edge, but Nacional’s improved home resilience and the absence of a couple of key Porto attackers suggest the visitors may not run away with the game. Expect a cautious start, midfield battles and limited clear-cut chances.
Filmogaz prediction: Porto to scrape a narrow victory in Madeira — 1-0 to Porto.
