‘Let’s Not Hit the Panic Button’: Lutz Still Trusts Cowboys Ahead of TCU Basketball Test
STILLWATER — Steve Lutz is urging calm as Oklahoma State returns home for a crucial Big 12 stretch. After an encouraging Quad 1 win at home was followed by a humbling trip to Arizona, the Cowboys face a pivotal Saturday matchup with TCU (Saturday ET) that could reshape their NCAA Tournament outlook.
Lutz: season far from over
Lutz insisted the season remains very much alive. "The season is not over, " he said. "It’s not lost. We’ve made progress in the program. We were not in the running for going to the NCAA Tournament last year. " With seven regular-season games and a conference tournament left, the coach framed the closing stretch as a clear path forward: defend, rebound and protect the basketball.
Where Oklahoma State sits on the bubble
Bracketology has the Cowboys just outside the field. OSU sits near the cut line in the NET rankings at No. 70 and carries a mixed quadrant profile — 1-6 in Quad 1, 6-2 in Quad 2 and a perfect 9-0 in Quads 3 and 4. A win over TCU would classify as a Quad 2 victory and could improve the Cowboys’ standing while knocking down a rival fighting for the same postseason slot.
Schedule math: seven games and clear targets
The coming slate offers multiple opportunities to flip the narrative. Remaining opponents and their NET contexts present at least three Quad 1/2 chances: TCU (NET 47), Colorado (NET 79), West Virginia (NET 62), Cincinnati (NET 61), UCF (NET 45) and a tough home date with Houston (NET 4). Lutz laid out a simple threshold: win a few games — especially the Quad 1 matchups — and the Cowboys can still dance. Finish 9-9 in Big 12 play, and the team would likely feel confident; even a 4-3 finish over the final seven could be enough depending on how other bubble teams fare.
Keys to Saturday: what OSU must do against TCU
Consistency and 40-minute effort were flagged as decisive. In the prior meeting with TCU, Oklahoma State scored 41 first-half points but sputtered in the second half, managing just 24 and failing to score in the final four minutes. The Cowboys must avoid that offensive collapse and sustain their pace. Defensive rebounding and ball security are non-negotiable; Lutz put it plainly: "If you want to defend and rebound and take care of the basketball for the next seven games, you’re gonna be dancing. "
What a win would mean — and what to worry about
A victory over TCU does more than improve a resume line. It would remove a direct competitor from the bubble picture and give the Cowboys momentum ahead of a late-season gauntlet that includes multiple quadrant tests. But the Arizona road trip exposed vulnerabilities: poor shooting, limited second-half execution and inconsistent defense. If that version of OSU shows up, the path to the tournament becomes much steeper.
Lutz emphasized accountability. "If you don’t, then you’re gonna have to look in the mirror and be able to own the fact, " he said, making clear the finishing stretch will be decided by who shows up on the court. Saturday’s game against TCU (Saturday ET) figures to be a vital early indicator.
