CPI report today: Markets brace for January inflation reading after tariff shifts and data quirks
The January Consumer Price Index lands at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, Feb. 13, 2026, capping a jittery week for markets. After headline inflation eased to 2.7% in December from 3% in September, today’s print will test whether that cooling stuck—or whether it was a one-off dip.
What to watch at 8:30 a.m. ET
The release, rescheduled after a brief funding lapse, will be parsed line by line. The headline index captures overall price moves, while the core gauge—stripping out food and energy—offers a cleaner read on underlying pressures. A softer core would strengthen the case that inflation’s downtrend remains intact. A firm core would reinforce worries that price stickiness is not yet vanquished.
Markets head into the print on edge. The dollar has been steadier this week, while risk appetite wobbled as tech shares slid. Bond traders will be focused on month-over-month momentum: a modest step-up in core could nudge yields higher and push out the expected timing of rate cuts.
Was December too low—or a turning point?
Several economists have flagged unusual forces that may have tugged December’s inflation reading lower. An extended government shutdown in the fall limited data collection, raising the possibility of an artificially subdued print. Aggressive holiday discounting may also have temporarily depressed prices. One month isn’t a trend, but a second consecutive decline in January would bolster the narrative that disinflation is reasserting itself after fits and starts.
Conversely, a bounce would support the idea that December was a statistical outlier. Either outcome will help clarify whether recent moderation reflects durable relief for consumers or a mirage created by timing and data gaps.
Tariff moves cut both ways
Policy shifts are also in focus. Late last year, the administration began rolling back tariffs on dozens of food items and in recent weeks adjusted trade terms with India and Bangladesh—lowering broad levies on imports from India to 18% from 25% and cutting duties to zero on certain textile and apparel goods from Bangladesh. A new reciprocal agreement with Taiwan aims to trim tariffs on many of the island’s exports to the United States.
Those steps could ease some categories over time. Yet analysts caution that earlier tariff costs may still be filtering through as suppliers renegotiate contracts and rebuild inventories. Some firms are also testing pricing power with the new year. The net effect for January could be mixed: headline relief in select goods offset by lingering pass-through from prior hikes.
Baseline expectations: headline up, core firmer
Forecasters broadly look for a 0.3% month-over-month rise in the headline index for January, while the annual rate is expected to edge down toward roughly 2.5%. On the core measure, several desks anticipate a perkier print to start the year. One major bank’s U.S. economics team pegs core at about 0.33% month over month, above the prior 12-month average near 0.22%, arguing that a solid rise is unlikely to be merely a statistical quirk. Another large research shop points to early-year price resets—especially in medical care commodities—and lingering tariff effects as potential drivers of a core uptick.
Not everyone sees upside pressure. Some strategists contend core inflation is still on a slowing path, helped by stronger productivity, moderating wage growth, and fading tariff impacts, which would keep the door open to additional rate cuts later this year.
Jobs revisions complicate the backdrop
Today’s inflation readout arrives two days after a delayed January jobs report that appeared solid on the surface but came with steep revisions to prior months. Initial estimates had shown 584,000 jobs added in 2025; updated figures cut that total to 181,000. The cooler trend in hiring, paired with gradually easing inflation, underscores the crosscurrents confronting policymakers as they balance stable prices with full employment.
What it means for the Fed, markets, and consumers
A hotter core would likely harden market skepticism toward near-term easing, potentially lifting Treasury yields and the dollar while pressuring stocks. A softer core would revive bets that rate cuts can proceed this year without risking a fresh inflation flare-up. For households, even modest progress matters: if annual inflation inches closer to 2%, purchasing power should stabilize as pay gains outpace price increases in more categories.
Bottom line: the CPI report today will set the tone for the next leg of the disinflation debate. One print won’t settle it, but the January snapshot will go a long way toward showing whether December’s cooldown was noise—or the start of a more durable trend.
